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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

PAXFOREX : USDCHF Support Zone

The USDCHF has contracted after reaching a multi-month high as visible in this D1 chart. USDCHF bulls have called for a rally to test the 1.000 level, but this currency pair has corrected sharply and the drop was halted by this currency pair’s 50 DMA which also enforces the upper band of the support zone. The last two daily candlestick formations have formed an inverted hammer as well as hammer formation at support which is a bullish indicator. We expect this pair to stabilize within its support zone which sees its lower band enforced by its 200 DMA.

MACD has contracted, but remains in bullish territory. The sharp contraction caused a gap to form between the moving average and the histogram which we believe will be closed during the pending move higher and we do expect it to remain in bullish territory overall. RSI has contracted from extreme overboughtconditions to neutral territory and may not collapse into oversold territory.

We recommend a long position at 0.9470 with a potential second entry level at 0.9370. We also recommend a stop sell order at 0.9400 in order to hedge the initial long position.

Traders who wish to exit this trade at a loss are advised to place their stop loss order at 0.9400. We will not use a stop loss order for this trade and will execute this trade as recommended. Place your take profit level at 0.9670.

Here are the reasons we call the USDCHF currency pair higher

• USDCHF has corrected sharply from recent highs and the drop was halted by the upper band of its support zone
• The upper band of its support zone is enforced by this currency pair’s 50 DMA
• The lower band of its support zone is enforced by this currency pair’s 200 DMA and we believe this currency pair will stabilize in the support zone given the overall strength of the zone
• A short covering rally in order to lock in profits before Friday’s U.S. employment snapshot for May
• Bargain hunters who seek to take advantage of the support zone

Open your PaxForex Trading Account and add this currency pair to your forex portfolio.

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

FXPRO : Fed to taper in 2013

The European Central Bank has been more outspoken about the possibility of setting a negative deposit rate, but this does not come without complications. The whole system is based on the ECB paying banks, not the other way around Simon Smith of FxPro. 

In the interview below, Smith also assesses that the Fed will taper QE this year, and explains the drivers behind such a move. In addition discusses the prospects of more Aussie weakness, policies of Japan towards the upper house elections and future BOE policy. A lot of food for the thought.

Simon has ovFxPro in May 2010, Simon was a consultant with Thomson Reuters, having spent four years as Chief Economist at Weavering Capital. He has held economic and strategy positions with Standard & Poor’s, together with consultancy firms 4Cast and MMS International. Simon holds an MSc. in Economics from the University of London and a BSc. from Brunel University.

er seventeen years experience of macro forecasting and investment strategy research. Prior to joining 

1. Do you think that the ECB will cut the lending rate or set a negative deposit rate in the upcoming meeting?

I think it’s unlikely that we will see anything.  They cut the lending rate only last month to 0.50% and Draghi did sound a little more open to the idea of a negative deposit rate. During normal times, any banks putting any excess money on deposit at the ECB (rather than lending to other banks) receive 1% below the main lending rate.  This provides meant as a ‘penalty’ for doing so.  But the difference is now only 0.5%, so the penalty has been halved.  But adopting a negative deposit rate is not without its problems.

The whole system is based on the ECB paying banks, not the other way around, so there are logistical considerations. Beyond that, we have to see who will be punished. The risk is that the burden falls on better capitalised banks, who could be encouraged to park funds overseas.  But what’s notable is that the amount being put on deposit at the ECB continues to fall, by more than 66% since the start of the year.  Whilst this trend continues, the impact of a negative deposit rate falls the longer the ECB waits.

I still think there is a decent chance it will happen, but just not as early as June.

2. The QE tapering topic has been a significant driver of the US dollar. Do you think that the Federal Reserve could indeed lower the pace of bond buys this year? What level of monthly job gains is needed for this?
   The Fed will taper bond purchases this year.  Furthermore, the minutes have told us that the labour market will be a fairly key factor in determining when the pace of purchases are scaled back, but they have not set any numbers on this, in contrast to their pledge for an “exceptionally low range for the federal fund rate” whilst unemployment is above 6.5%.  I would think they would like to see monthly growth in headline payrolls of 200k. We are at that on the 3 and 6 month averages, but only just and the last 2 months have been below this. As such, they want to be sure that the recovery is sustainable. Too often policy makers (and even more often markets) have been caught out, expecting that the worst is over, only for expectations to see a strong turnaround, either on the back of unexpected events or otherwise.

3. In Japan, elections for the upper house of parliament are scheduled for July 21st. Can we expect the government to introduce more plans towards the elections, or will they try not to change anything now that Abenomics is perceived as a success story?

Notionally you would have thought they would hold back on some of the more difficult structural reforms as part of their growth strategy, because they are likely to be electorally unpopular.  There will still be an element of this, but in general Abe has shown a strong willingness to push ahead, understanding that structural reforms are required if Japan is to stand any chance of achieving the growth required to pay off the debt it has accumulated over the years.  Abe has strong approval ratings and the LDP are seen doing well in July, which will give him a stronger mandate to push through such reforms.  So in summary, I think it’s going to be a balancing act, doing enough to show progress, but not so much that their solid electoral chances are jeopardised.

4. The Australian dollar received many negative headlines of late. Is this negativity in place, or has the market gotten ahead of itself?

In the middle of the month, I certainly had the sense that the Aussie was looking over-sold, given the extent of the sell-off seen. But more recently it has turned into a US dollar story, with the greenback strong pretty much across the board and this has caused more investors to bail-out of long-term positions on the Aussie. This time last year, it was very much a story of relative sovereign fundamentals. The Eurozone crisis was deepening, there were doubts over US budgetary policy and the Aussie was benefitting from (among other things) the perception that its public finances were on a much sounder footing. The Eurozone position has improved (or at least markets are pricing this) and the US battled through the sequester. There have always been reasons to say the Aussie has been overvalued for the past several years, but it’s all a matter of timing and momentum. For now, the timing is right for a weaker Aussie and the momentum has been in place in May. There remains a risk of a modest correction, but overall the trend towards a weaker is likely to continue in the second half of the year.

5. The Bank of England is currently in twilight zone. Looking forward to Carney’s first rate decision in July, do you see any big moves?

Not for the moment.  Looking at the performance of the majors during May, Sterling is the first currency that has more been a victim of the firmer dollar environment, rather than a cause. In other  words, the yen, Aussie and kiwi have all had their reasons for weakening, whereas sterling has not had been subject to domestic factors pushing it lower.  The fact that we heading into a transition at the Bank of England has probably been playing a part in this, together with the fact that we are seeing some signs of stabilisation on the economy, meaning more divided opinions on the MPC between those believe the UK needs more QE (3 members voting for this over recent months) and those who believe it does not.  I don’t see any moves straight away on UK policy. Statistically, meetings 1 month before at Inflation Report (released every 3 months, including August) are the least likely to result in a change of policy, as the committee holds back to update their latest thinking. I think we will see more QE, but not straight away.

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USD Leads May Despite Last 3 Days

by Adam Button

Jun 3, 2013 0:21

A strong official PMI from China contrasted a weak reading on the sector from HSBC. Despite a three day slump to end the month, the US dollar was easily the best performer in May while the Australian dollar lagged badly. Weekly CFTC positioning data show growing AUD and CHF shorts. We reintroduced USDCHF after a long absence from the Premium Insights with 2 new trades and monthly and weekly charts. 1 EURUSD remain in progress as well as 3 USDJPY, 2 EURJPY, 2 USDCAD and 1 silver. For full detail, see latest Premium Insights.

The official manufacutring sentiment survey from China rose to 50.8 compared to 50.0 expected and 50.6 in April. The number could give the Australian dollar some respite to start the week but traders may be skeptical. The PMI earlier in the week from HSBC slipped to 49.6 from 50.4 in April.

There is also uncertainty about the US manufacturing. Signs were pointing to a worsening slump until Fridaywhen the Chicago PMI soared to 58.7 compared to 50.0 expected. In the span of a month, the index when from the lowest since 2009 to the highest since early 2012.

We caution that it's only one month and one data point but renewed strength from US factories would be another reason to buy the US dollar. The other data point on Friday was the PCE report, which showed core inflation up 1.1% compared to 1.0% y/y expected. Rising inflation could give the Fed an incentive to taper QE, which could be a major boost for the US dollar. One negative part of the report was personal spending, which fell 0.2% in April.   Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR -85K vs -81K prior JPY -100K vs -95K prior GBP -75K vs -77K prior AUD -42K vs -32K prior CAD -33K vs -34K prior NZD +14K vs +18K prior CHF -29K vs -20K prior US Dollar Index longs at 46K vs 43K prior

The market has quietly built up the largest short position in CHF in 11 months. There are always rumors about hiking the EUR/CHF floor but it's mostly a trade on dollar strength and improving fundamentals in Europe.

Meanwhile, euro shorts are showing no sign of quitting even though more than half of the short position was initiate in the past two weeks – all of which are underwater. It's also interesting to note the lack of movement in NZD despite the rush in Australian dollar shorts. The carry is better in New Zealand but it's difficult to imagine the divergence continuing.

 

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XEMARKETS EURJPY ON JAPAN CPI FRIDAY 31.05.2013

What a difference a day makes as today's USD tumble was attributed to a modest miss in Q1 GDP revision (2.4% vs exp 2.5%), while the important PCE rose to a higher than expected 3.4%. USDX failed to reach the 85 resistance, but support looks to remain intact around 80.70. AUDUSD rebounded on higher than expected Capex spending plans but failed to reach our 0.9700 short. EUR and CHF were among the day's best performers. Tonight's April CPI figures (00:30 London) from Japan are expected to show improved data all around, which may justify the weak-yen policy and support yen crosses. With EUR outperforming most major FX lately, EURJPY will be particulat to watch as Japan's inflation data is released amid 13-month highs in JGB yields.  CAD awaits tomorrow's March GDP figures, which will help determined the fate of our latest USDCAD longs.

by Ashraf Laidi

May 30, 2013 20:38

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MAYZUS : 30 MAY 2013: JAPANESE NIKKEI INDEX IS AGAIN AN OUTSIDER.

30 MAY 2013: JAPANESE NIKKEI INDEX IS AGAIN AN OUTSIDER.

Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

After couple of days of moderate growth, the decrease at the Asian stock markets was resumed. Support to sellers is given by the Yen growth, though in the debt market - profitability of 10 year bonds, was a little far away from maximum levels previously reached. The reason for this, could be the speech from the chairman of the Central Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, who declared intention to decrease volatility in the debt market, and also decrease interest rates by means of a monetary easing program in the long-term prospective. As a result, Japanese Nikkei lost -5.14% and USD/JPY decreased to 100.72 this morning.

The Eurozone prepared an unpleasant surprise yesterday- data on the labor market which showed growth of the number of the unemployed by 21 thousand against the expected 4 thousand. However, it couldn't roll EUR/USD, which, towards the end of the day,returned to the day’s maximum levels, having reached 1,2977 and having rolled away to 1,2940 by the close.

There are some statistics which could influence further development of the EUR/USD pair. We are not expecting any changes of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the USA, but the number of the unemployed who have submitted applications for receiving a grant, is interesting, especially in the light of Rosengren's statements yesterday from FRS, in which he noted that it is possible to reduce the volume of the buying up of bonds, if the indicators from the labor market and on the economy, will, in general, be stable for few more months. The lower the unemployment figures will be,the higher chances EUR/USD will have to return to testing of support on 1,2850.

Prices of oil following the results of the last trading session showed negative dynamics. Besides a noticeable decrease in the developed stock markets, deterioration of forecasts on the development of the economy of the two largest consumers of raw materials - the USA and the People's Republic of China, became one of negative factors. Also, according to yesterday's data from the American institute of oil (API) stocks of oil increased by 4,4 million barrels. As for gasoline, the volume of stocks grew by 1,94 million barrels. Today, price for Brent is 102,36$ and price for WTI is 92.87$.

Crude Oil (Jul 13) intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 94.30 Our preference: SHORT positions below 94.3 with 92.2 & 91.45 in sight. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 94.3 will call for a rebound towards 95 & 95.9. Comment: technically, the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

TRADE BERSAMA KAMI SEKARANG ! Sangkalan Analisis kami berikan didasarkan pada perkiraan rata-rata pergerakan harga dalam satu hari. Tidak menjamin apa yang kami hasilkan sebenarnya adalah tepat dan benar. Segala sesuatu yang terjadi dalam keputusan yang Anda buat pada transaksi trading anda adalah menjadi tanggung jawab Anda.

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FXCC : MARKET UPDATE 30.05.2013

2013-05-30 04:30 GMT OECD: Global economy is moving forward at multiple speeds In its biannual Economic Outlook report, published on Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reduced the global growth outlook to 3.1% from the previous estimate of 3.4%. It expects the US and the Japanese economies to improve this year, suggesting at the same time that the Eurozone will continue to lag which might have “negative implications for the global economy." The OECD cut the Eurozone growth forecast to -0.6% from -0.1% estimated in November 2012, warning that "activity is still falling, reflecting ongoing fiscal consolidation, weak confidence and tight credit conditions, especially in the periphery." The Eurozone economy should rebound to 1.1% in 2014. The OECD also urged the ECB to seriously consider implementing QE and introducing negative deposit rates in order to stimulate recovery in the area. China, which already saw its growth outlook reduced on Tuesday by the IMF, is expected to grow by 7.8% this year, down from a previous estimate of 8.5%. The organization was more upbeat about the US, which is projected to grow by 1.9% in 2013 and by 2.8% in 2014. Japan's growth forecast was hiked to 1.6% from 0.7%, with the prospect of a 1.4% gain next year, owing to the BoJ's implementation of fiscal and monetary stimulus programs.-FXstreet.com   2013-05-30 06:00 GMT UK. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) (May) 2013-05-30 12:30 GMT USA. Gross Domestic Product Price Index 2013-05-30 14:30 GMT USA. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Apr) 2013-05-30 23:30 GMT Japan. National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) http://bit.ly/FXCC_Deryworldscorphttp://bit.ly/FXCC_Deryworldscorp   2013-05-30 04:39 GMT USD eases to key level at 83.50 ahead of US GDP 2013-05-30 03:11 GMT GBP/USD – Bullish engulfing candle to spur further advances? 2013-05-30 02:29 GMT EUR/USD edging towards resistance at 1.3000 2013-05-30 01:50 GMT Aussie edging higher towards resistance at 0.9700

AUDUSD 0.96915 / 920 NZDUSD 0.81185 / 197 USDCHF 0.95677 / 683 USDCAD 1.03311 / 318 GBPJPY 152.780 / 796 EURCHF 1.24228 / 233 GOLD 1404.99 / .05 SILVER 22.59 / .63

EURUSD HIGH1.2975 LOW1.29332 BID1.29729 ASK1.29729 CHANGE0.26% TIME08:23:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up TREND CONDITION Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Recent upside penetration is limited now to the key resistive barrier at 1.2977 (R1). Appreciation above this mark might likely push the pair toward to next targets at 1.2991 (R2) and 1.3006 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible bull back on the hourly chart might face next hurdle at 1.2933 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next retracement target at 1.2919 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.2902 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.2977, 1.2991, 1.3006 Support Levels: 1.2933, 1.2919, 1.2902

GBPUSD HIGH1.51713 LOW1.51136 BID1.51673 ASK1.51681 CHANGE0.26% TIME08:23:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up TREND CONDITION Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

Upwards scenario: A bullish oriented market participant might pressures to test our next resistance level at 1.5165 (R1). Loss here could open a route towards to our interim target at 1.5188 (R2) and the main aim for today locates at 1.5211 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be negative. Though, extension lower the 1.5099 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next supports at 1.5076 (S2) and 1.5053 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5165, 1.5188, 1.5211 Support Levels: 1.5099, 1.5076, 1.5053

USDJPY HIGH101.538 LOW100.592 BID100.803 ASK100.807 CHANGE-0.34% TIME08:23:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down TREND CONDITION Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY recently tested negative side and currently remains stable below the 20 SMA. Possible price appreciation is limited to the resistance level at 101.53 (R1). Only clear break here would suggest next intraday targets at 101.81 (R2) and 102.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any prolonged movement below the support at 100.60 (S1) might prolong downside pressure and drive market price towards to supportive means at 100.34 (S2) and 100.08 (S3). Resistance Levels: 101.53, 101.81, 102.09 Support Levels: 100.60, 100.34, 100.08

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

hmunawer1

| Wednesday, 29 May 2013 21:08

EUR/USD inched closer to 1.30 on Wednesday following strong CPI data from Germany. The pair has consolidated in the mid-129 region following the close of European markets. With no key economic releases slated for Wednesday, the pair is likely to hold steady in North American trade. Below we survey the market vitals for this pair and where we expect it to go this week.

EUR/USD Performance Tracker

5-Day: +0.15%

Outlook: Slightly bullish

Pivot: 1.2954

Support levels: 1.2942, 1.2934, 1.2921

Resistance levels: 1.2967, 1.2974, 1.2987

Movement for this pair could pick up over the next two days, as the US is set to release a few key economic indicators. Traders should keep the following releases in mind:

Thursday:

• Weekly job claims
• GDP revision
• Pending home sales

Friday:

• Personal income
• Consumer spending
• Chicago PMO
• Consumer sentiment

The euro continues to hold steady, despite a mixed bag of German data (high unemployment balance strong CPI). The EUR/USD pair continues to be drawn to the 1.30 line, which most believe is fair value for the time being. On Wednesday the euro gained on the back of investor profit-seeking at the expense of the US dollar.

The euro continues to outperform its other major competitors, signalling a slightly bullish market for key euro pairs. Below is a summary:

EUR/GBP: 0.8561 (+0.1300%)

EUR/CAD: 1.34 (+0.3400%)

EUR/AUD: 1.34 (+0.4600%)

The only blip was the volatile yen market, which pushed EUR/JPY back to 1.3065 rang—a drop of 0.6100% on the day.

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia