DIRECTFX : Daily Currency Report

Forex Market Update This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies. Earlier in the Asian session, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi stated that there are few signs of a possible stabilization in the Euro region and the economic situation still “remains challenging”. The Euro rose higher, underpinned by improved risk appetite after data released this morning revealed that manufacturing PMI data across the Europe posted better-than-expected figures in May. The Pound gained traction this morning, after UK’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in 14 months in May, boosting optimism that nation's recovery is becoming more broad based and less reliant on the services sector. The Yen recovered from its previous session losses this morning, after the IMF warned on Friday that, the Japanese currency has fallen enough to a level “moderately below” its natural trading value. The Australian is trading higher despite data indicated that retail sales in the nation rose less-than-expected in April. Also, official data from China, Australia’s major trading partner showed that, factory activity shrank for the first time in seven months in May and growth in services activity slowed down in the same month. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting tomorrow would be of much interest to the investors, with most of the market participants expecting the rate to remain on hold at its record low of 2.75%. EUR USD This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3030 against the USD, 0.38% higher from the New York close. In the Euro-zone, manufacturing PMI data from Germany and France rose slightly more-than-expected in May, while Italian manufacturing activity rose to a four-month high in the same month. Additionally, European manufacturing activity eased in May. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3044 and a low of 1.2987. On Friday, EUR traded 0.07% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.2981. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2967 and first resistance at 1.3068. GBP USD At 09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5270 against the USD, 0.57% higher from the New York close, after manufacturing PMI in the UK rose to a reading of 51.3 in May, from a revised reading of 50.2 recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the index to remain unchanged. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5289 and a low of 1.5196. On Friday, GBP traded 0.23% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5183. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5177 and first resistance at 1.5326. USD JPY The USD is trading at 100.36 against the JPY at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.31% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 100.77 and a low of 100.03. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.19% higher against the JPY, and closed at 100.67. The pair is expected to find its first support at 99.85 and first resistance at 101.04. USD CHF This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9564 against the Swiss Franc, 0.39% lower from the New York close. In Switzerland, the SVME PMI expanded in the month of May, recording a reading of 52.2, from a reading of 50.2 in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9580 and a low of 0.9541. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.53% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.9601. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9509 and first resistance at 0.9623. USD CAD At 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0368 against the CAD, marginally higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0376 and a low of 1.0343. On Friday, the USD traded 0.56% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0367. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0318 and first resistance at 1.0400.  AUD USD The AUD is trading at 0.9643 against the USD, at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.74% higher from the New York close. Data released from Australia indicated that retail sales rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.2% (MoM) in April, compared to a 0.4% drop recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9653 and a low of 0.9598. AUD traded 0.25% lower against the USD in the New York session on Friday, and closed at 0.9572. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9576 and first resistance at 0.9681. Gold At 09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1396.35 per ounce, 0.61% higher from the New York close, amid weakness in the US Dollar. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1401.95 and a low of $1391.38 per ounce. In the New York session on Friday, the yellow metal traded 1.37% lower, and closed at $1387.92. Gold has its first support at $1382.76 and first resistance at $1412.25. Silver Silver is trading at $22.46 per ounce, 0.89% higher from the New York close, at 09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.55 and a low of $22.33 per ounce. Silver traded 0.14% lower against the USD in the New York session on Friday, and closed at $22.26. Silver has its first support at $22.21 and first resistance at $22.67. Crude Oil At 09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $92.01 per barrel, 0.40% higher from the New York close, as weak Chinese manufacturing data dampened demand prospects for the oil. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $92.09 and a low of $91.37. On Friday, Oil traded 0.95% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $91.63. It has its first support at $91.08 and first resistance at $93.12. Economic Snapshot UK’s manufacturing PMI rose in May In the UK, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) advanced to a reading of 51.3 in May, from a revised reading of 50.2. Euro-zone’s manufacturing PMI advanced in May In the Euro-zone, the final manufacturing PMI climbed to a reading of 48.3 in May, higher than the flash reading of 47.8 and following a reading of 46.7 in April. Germany's manufacturing sector activity improved in May On a seasonally adjusted basis, the manufacturing PMI in Germany edged up to a reading of 49.4 in May, from a reading of 48.1 registered in April. Market had expected a reading of 49.0. French manufacturing PMI records a rise in May In France, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI rose to a reading of 46.4 in May, higher than the expected reading of 45.5 and from a reading of 44.4 in April. Switzerland's manufacturing PMI rose in May The Swiss Association of Purchasing and Materials Management reported that its SVME manufacturing PMI in Switzerland rose to a reading of 52.2 in May, much higher than the expected reading of 50.8 in May and from a reading of 50.2 recorded in April. Italy’s manufacturing PMI increased more-than-expected in May In Italy, manufacturing PMI rose more than the expected to a reading of 47.3 in May, compared to a reading of 45.5 registered in the previous month. Spain’s manufacturing PMI rose in May Spain’s manufacturing PMI advanced to reading of 48.1 in May, above market consensus for a reading of 45.5 and compared to a reading of 44.7 recorded in April. Australia TD securities inflation eased in May On a monthly basis, TD securities inflation in Australia slipped to 0.2% in May, from 0.3% reported in April. Annually, TD securities inflation increased to 2.2% in May, from 2.1% in April. Australia retail sales rose in April On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales in Australia increased 0.2% in April, lower than the expected 0.3% rise and compared to 0.4% fall recorded in the previous month. China's non-manufacturing PMI slipped in May In China, the non-manufacturing PMI declined to a reading of 54.3 in May, from a reading of 54.5 registered in the previous month. China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI fell in May According to the survey data from Markit/HSBC, manufacturing PMI in China fell to a reading of 49.2 in May, from a reading of 50.4 registered in the previous month.

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MAYZUS : 30 MAY 2013: JAPANESE NIKKEI INDEX IS AGAIN AN OUTSIDER.

30 MAY 2013: JAPANESE NIKKEI INDEX IS AGAIN AN OUTSIDER.

Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

After couple of days of moderate growth, the decrease at the Asian stock markets was resumed. Support to sellers is given by the Yen growth, though in the debt market - profitability of 10 year bonds, was a little far away from maximum levels previously reached. The reason for this, could be the speech from the chairman of the Central Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, who declared intention to decrease volatility in the debt market, and also decrease interest rates by means of a monetary easing program in the long-term prospective. As a result, Japanese Nikkei lost -5.14% and USD/JPY decreased to 100.72 this morning.

The Eurozone prepared an unpleasant surprise yesterday- data on the labor market which showed growth of the number of the unemployed by 21 thousand against the expected 4 thousand. However, it couldn't roll EUR/USD, which, towards the end of the day,returned to the day’s maximum levels, having reached 1,2977 and having rolled away to 1,2940 by the close.

There are some statistics which could influence further development of the EUR/USD pair. We are not expecting any changes of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the USA, but the number of the unemployed who have submitted applications for receiving a grant, is interesting, especially in the light of Rosengren's statements yesterday from FRS, in which he noted that it is possible to reduce the volume of the buying up of bonds, if the indicators from the labor market and on the economy, will, in general, be stable for few more months. The lower the unemployment figures will be,the higher chances EUR/USD will have to return to testing of support on 1,2850.

Prices of oil following the results of the last trading session showed negative dynamics. Besides a noticeable decrease in the developed stock markets, deterioration of forecasts on the development of the economy of the two largest consumers of raw materials - the USA and the People's Republic of China, became one of negative factors. Also, according to yesterday's data from the American institute of oil (API) stocks of oil increased by 4,4 million barrels. As for gasoline, the volume of stocks grew by 1,94 million barrels. Today, price for Brent is 102,36$ and price for WTI is 92.87$.

Crude Oil (Jul 13) intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 94.30 Our preference: SHORT positions below 94.3 with 92.2 & 91.45 in sight. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 94.3 will call for a rebound towards 95 & 95.9. Comment: technically, the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

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DIRECTFX : Daily Currency Report 30.05.2013

Forex Market Update This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies. A slate of confidence indicators just released from the Euro-zone indicated a modest recovery in the economic conditions in the region, while GDP data from Spain showed improvement in the first quarter of 2013, though remained in contraction territory. Yesterday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in its half-yearly update, cautioned that lingering economic weakness in Europe ‘‘could evolve into stagnation with negative implications for the global economy.’’ The Canadian Dollar extended its previous session gains against the USD and is trading higher this morning, as the outgoing Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney left interest rates unchanged and stated that the interest rates may rise in near term. Against this backdrop, the Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) data scheduled to be released tomorrow would garner a lot of market attention. The Australian Dollar recovered from previous losses against the US Dollar, after data showed that building approvals in Australia grew more-than-expected in April, dampening the prospect for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank. The greenback traded lower in the New York session yesterday, against the key currencies. EUR USD This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.2992 against the USD, 0.41% higher from the New York close, after economic sentiment index in the Euro-zone rose to a reading of 89.4 in May, from a reading of 88.6 recorded in the previous month. Additionally, business climate, industrial confidence and consumer confidence in the Euro-zone also improved in May. Separately, gross domestic product data from Spain indicated that the nation contracted 0.5% in Q12013. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.2992 and a low of 1.2932. Yesterday, EUR traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.2939. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2919 and first resistance at 1.3029.  GBP USD At 09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5194 against the USD, 0.44% higher from the New York close, after economic data indicated that house prices in the UK picked up in May. The Nationwide house prices in the UK rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% (MoM) in May, compared to a flat rate recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5194 and a low of 1.5113. Yesterday, GBP traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5127. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5069 and first resistance at 1.5238.  USD JPY The USD is trading at 100.72 against the JPY at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.44% lower from the New York close. The Yen registered gains after data indicated that, investors in Japan sold a net ¥1.12 trillion of foreign bonds in the week ended May 24, the most since the period ended April 5. Data on Japan’s consumer price inflation, unemployment rate and industrial production set to be release earlytomorrow would further determine the trading pattern in the pair. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 101.57 and a low of 100.46. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.08% lower against the JPY, and closed at 101.17. The pair is expected to find its first support at 100.22 and first resistance at 101.63.  USD CHF This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9574 against the Swiss Franc, 0.51% lower from the New York close. The Swiss Franc received support after data indicated that gross domestic product in Switzerland rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% (QoQ) in the first quarter of 2013, following a revised 0.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9642 and a low of 0.9564. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.15% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9623. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9522 and first resistance at 0.9679.  USD CAD At 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0329 against the CAD, 0.22% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0369 and a low of 1.0328. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.22% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0352. The Bank of Canada (BoC), in its monetary policy meeting held yesterday decided to keep its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0307 and first resistance at 1.0385.  AUD USD The AUD is trading at 0.9663 against the USD, at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.32% higher from the New York close, after data indicated that building permits in Australia climbed 27.3% (YoY) in April, following a 3.9% rise recorded in the previous month. The pair’s direction later in the day would be dominated by movements in the US Dollar, with the release of GDP and initial jobless claims data in the US. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9699 and a low of 0.9582. AUD traded 0.07% higher against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at 0.9632. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9594 and first resistance at 0.9726.  Gold At 09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1405.53 per ounce, 0.88% higher from the New York close, after the US Dollar fell sharply. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1411.27 and a low of $1389.00 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.41% higher, and closed at $1393.25. Gold has its first support at $1388.19 and first resistance at $1417.07. Silver Silver is trading at $22.76 per ounce, 1.04% higher from the New York close, at 09:40 GMT this morning, tracking gains in the yellow metal. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.83 and a low of $22.38 per ounce. Silver traded 0.73% higher against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at $22.52. Silver has its first support at $22.38 and first resistance at $22.98. FOLLOW DIRECTFX GOLDSILVER CLUB CLICK HERE !! Crude Oil At 09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $92.60 per barrel, 0.20% lower from the New York close, ahead of a meeting by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the crude oil inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration. Late yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that the US crude inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels in the week ended 24th May, compared to expectations for a drop of 1.1 million barrels. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $93.29 and a low of $92.34. Yesterday, Oil traded 1.74% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $92.75. It has its first support at $91.55 and first resistance at $94.43. Economic Snapshot House prices in the UK rose in May In the UK, the Nationwide house price index advanced 1.1% annually in May, against the forecast for a 0.9% rise and following a 0.9 % annual growth registered in the previous month. On a monthly basis, the house price index rose 0.4% in May, compared to a flat change recorded in the previous month. Lloyds business barometer in the UK climbed in May The Lloyds Business Group has reported that business barometer in the UK climbed to a reading of 39.0 in May, compared to a reading of 27.0 recorded in the previous month. Euro-zone sentiment indices rose in May In the Euro-zone, the economic sentiment indicator rose to a reading of 89.4 in May, compared to a reading of 88.6 in the previous month. Business climate indicator climbed to a reading of -0.76 in May, compared to a reading of -1.04 in the previous month. Additionally, services sentiment indicator rose to a reading of -9.3 in May, compared to a reading of -11.1 in the previous month. Moreover, industrial confidence indicator rose to a reading of -13.0 in May, compared to a reading of -13.8 in the previous month. Euro-zone consumer confidence improved in May In the Euro-zone, consumer confidence indicator rose to a reading of -21.9 in May, compared to a reading of -22.3 in April. Swiss economy expanded in the Q12013 On a seasonally adjusted, gross domestic product (GDP) in Switzerland climbed 0.6% (QoQ) in Q12013, following a revised 0.3% rise registered in the Q42012. Annually, the GDP rose 1.1% in the Q12013, following a 1.4% gain recorded in the Q42012. Italian PPI declined in April In Italy, Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 0.4% (MoM) in April, compared to a flat change recorded in the previous month. On an annual basis, PPI fell 1.0% in April, compared to a 0.1% drop recorded in March. Spain inflation increased more-than-expected in May In Spain, consumer price index rose 1.7% in May, compared to a 1.4% rise recorded in April. Market had expected a rise of 1.6%. Additionally, harmonized inflation rose to 1.8% in May against the forecast for a 1.7% rise and following a rate of 1.5% in April. Spanish GDP fell in line with preliminary estimate in the Q12013 In Spain, GDP fell 0.5% (QoQ) in the Q12013, in line with the preliminary estimate, and compared to a 0.8% drop recorded in the Q42012. Building approvals in Australia rose in April On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, building approvals in Australia increased 9.1% in April, compared to a 5.5% drop registered in March. Also, building approvals jumped 27.3% (YoY) in April, following a 3.9% rise recorded in the previous month.

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DIRECTFX 28.05.2013 : Daily Currency Report

Forex Market Update This morning, the greenback is trading higher against most of the major currencies. The Euro came under pressure, after data released this morning indicated that French consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in May. Yesterday, the Standard and Poor’s rating agency warned that France must deliver its promised budget cuts to avoid a credit rating downgrade. Meanwhile, import prices in Germany dropped more-than-expected in the month of April. The Yen is trading lower against the dollar, after the advisor to the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, Koichi Hamada stated that the Bank of Japan would provide further stimulus, if necessary, to drive an economic revival. The Swiss Franc is trading lower against the USD and the EUR, after data revealed that trade surplus in Switzerland unexpectedly narrowed for April, largely affected by a steep fall in exports due to sluggish demand in Europe, the nation’s biggest trading partner. The US consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index which are scheduled for release later in the day are expected to trigger much of the action in the forex market. The greenback traded higher in the New York session yesterday, against the key currencies. EUR USD This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.2926 against the USD, marginally lower from the New York close. In economic news, German import prices dropped 1.4% (MoM) in April, against the expectation of a 0.5% drop. Additionally, French consumer confidence index dropped unexpectedly to a reading of 79.0 in May, from a revised reading of 83.0 recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.2936 and a low of 1.2882. Yesterday, EUR traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.2932. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2889 and first resistance at 1.2957. GBP USD At 09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5103 against the USD, marginally lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5115 and a low of 1.5064. Yesterday, GBP traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5110. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5057 and first resistance at 1.5143. USD JPY The USD is trading at 102.02 against the JPY at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.92% higher from the New York close, snapping yen’s recent rally stemming from concerns about a climb in Japanese government bond yields. On the data front, Japanese retail trade data is awaited later in the day which is expected to remain unchanged in April, compared to a 1.4% drop recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.35 and a low of 101.05. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.08% higher against the JPY, and closed at 101.09. The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.08 and first resistance at 102.68. USD CHF This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9681 against the Swiss Franc, 0.54% higher from the New York close. The Swiss Franc recorded losses after trade surplus in Switzerland narrowed to CHF1.73 billion in April, from a revised CHF1.89 billion recorded in the previous month. However, employment level in the nation rose to a seasonally adjusted 4.15 million in the first quarter of 2013, from 4.12 million recorded in the previous quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9706 and a low of 0.9624. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded marginally lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9629. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9624 and first resistance at 0.9726. USD CAD At 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0346 against the CAD, 0.07% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0369 and a low of 1.0333. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.14% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0339. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0319 and first resistance at 1.0376. AUD USD The AUD is trading at 0.9663 against the USD, at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.29% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9682 and a low of 0.9596. AUD traded 0.09% lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at 0.9635. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9615 and first resistance at 0.9701. Gold At 09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1380.16 per ounce, 1.04% lower from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1396.62 and a low of $1377.69 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded marginally lower, and closed at $1394.80. Gold has its first support at $1372.85 and first resistance at $1392.31. Silver Silver is trading at $22.34 per ounce, 1.29% lower from the New York close, at 09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.68 and a low of $22.27 per ounce. Silver traded 0.16% lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at $22.64. Silver has its first support at $22.15 and first resistance at $22.65. Crude Oil At 09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $94.68 per barrel, 1.10% higher from the New York close, on supply concerns escalating from violence in Syria, one of the major oil exporters. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $94.76 and a low of $93.54. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.18% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $93.63. It has its first support at $93.78 and first resistance at $95.17. Economic Snapshot German import price index fell in April In Germany, import price index fell 3.2% (YoY) in April, compared to a 2.3% drop in March. On a monthly basis, import price index declined 1.4% in April, compared to a 0.1% drop recorded in the previous month. French consumer confidence declined more-than-expected in May In France, consumer confidence declined to a reading of 79.0 in May, from a downwardly revised reading of 83.0 in April. Market had expected consumer confidence to rise to a reading of 85.0. Swiss trade surplus narrowed in April In Switzerland, trade surplus narrowed to CHF1.73 billion in April, compared to a surplus of CHF1.89 billion recorded in the previous month. Market had expected trade surplus to widen to CHF2.05 billion. Additionally, exports rose to CHF17.00 billion in April, compared to CHF16.66 billion in the previous month. Imports rose to CHF15.28 billion in April, compared to CHF14.77 billion in the previous month. Swiss employment level rose in the Q1 2013 In Switzerland, employment level rose to 4.15 million in the first quarter of 2013, compared to a level of 4.12 million in the previous quarter. Market had expected employment level to fall to 4.10 million. Small business confidence in Japan declined in May In Japan, the small business confidence index weakened to a reading of 48.2 in May, compared to a reading of 49.4 in April. Market had expected the index to rise to a reading of 50.0. Leading index in China declined in April In China, leading index fell to a reading of 99.8 in April, compared to a reading of 100.0 in March.

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MAYZUS : 27 MAY 2013: INVESTORS LOSE OUT DUE TO BAD TIMING

27 MAY 2013: INVESTORS LOSE OUT DUE TO BAD TIMING

Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Stocks took a breather last week after signs of cooling in China, and what some investors saw as a possible change in FED policies. The Nikkei, which has soared since last November on hopes of economic revival, was the hardest hit with Thursday’s 7,32 % fall. Other Asian and European markets dropped as well, but not so dramatically, raising questions whether the bull market has come to an end.


Some investors blame FED-chairman, Ben Bernanke for the turmoil. Others point to a seeming difference between Bernanke and the board’s published minutes for late April. Investors might, however, blame themselves for unrealistic expectations and their gamble on a change in FED’s policies.


Investors have different motives in their bet for a change. Some are appalled by FED’s money printing and that there is no predicted hyperinflation. Others hoped that Bernanke’s monetary experiments would be abandoned. Such abandonment would have meant that President Obama’s entire economic policy had failed. The third and biggest group of Wall Street investors simply blame themselves for missing out on the stock rally. The general indexes have beaten the hedge funds three times since January.


No wonder many of them are frustrated. Fat bonuses this year might hang on their own wishful thinking for a quick change. Change depends, however, on objective analysis, and a correct reading of Bernanke’s careful wording. In his testimony last week, Bernanke repeated word for word what he stated since last September.


FED will continue to buy 85 billion of bonds monthly till the 6,5 % target for unemployment and a steady growth is established. The US economy is not quite there yet. It might well take another 8 – 12 months. The grunting from dissatisfied FED board members is not something new.Their hopes for a change in policies have been reflected in the last eight FED minutes.


There will, of course, be a change. But the timing will be decided by economic data and FED’s consideration. Investors lost billions of dollars last week on a wrong bet on the timing for a change. By now, they have hopefully swallowed their anger and are ready to meet markets which are hopefully back on track, ready for rallies and continued new highs.

Crude Oil (Jul 13) intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 94.45 Our preference: SHORT positions below 94.45 with targets @ 93 & 92.2. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 94.45 will call for 95 & 95.55. Comment: as long as the resistance at 94.45 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 93 remains high.

TRADE BERSAMA KAMI SEKARANG ! Sangkalan Analisis kami berikan didasarkan pada perkiraan rata-rata pergerakan harga dalam satu hari. Tidak menjamin apa yang kami hasilkan sebenarnya adalah tepat dan benar. Segala sesuatu yang terjadi dalam keputusan yang Anda buat pada transaksi trading anda adalah menjadi tanggung jawab Anda.

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DIRECTFX : Daily Currency Report

Forex Market Update This morning, the greenback is trading higher against most of the major currencies, after the Federal Reserve official, Charles Plosser expressed concerns over the long term impact of the quantitative easing, urging the central bank to exit its policy soon. Ahead today investors await a raft of economic data that could offer further evidence on whether an economic recovery remains under way in the US. Yesterday’s weak Euro-zone GDP data continued to weigh on the Euro, as speculation increased that the European Central Bank (ECB) would opt for negative rates very soon. The expectations are further reinforced after today’s data from France indicated that employment in the country continued to decline in Q12013. However, losses were capped after reports showed that trade surplus from Italy and Euro-zone widened in March. On a ratings note, Fitch Ratings affirmed Slovakia’s sovereign rating at “A+”, with a “Stable” outlook, citing strongest economic growth achieved by the nation since the global financial crisis began in 2008-09. As the aggressive monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) guided by Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe bear fruits, Japan recorded a spell bound increase in its GDP figures in the first quarter of 2013. Also, industrial production in the country increased in the month of March. Moreover, Fitch ratings affirmed Japan at “A+” rating with a “Negative” outlook.  The greenback traded lower in the New York session yesterday against the key currencies. EUR USD This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.2875 against the USD, marginally lower from the New York close. In the Euro-zone, annual CPI rose 1.2%, in line with the preliminary estimate, while trade surplus rose to a seasonally adjusted €18.7 billion in March, from a revised €12.7 billion recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, France recorded a 0.1% drop in its quarterly nonfarm payrolls in Q12013, compared to a 0.3% drop in the previous quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.2890 and a low of 1.2846. Yesterday, EUR traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.2880. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2848 and first resistance at 1.2896. GBP USD At 09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5229 against the USD, marginally higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5249 and a low of 1.5197. Yesterday, GBP traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5226. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5178 and first resistance at 1.5275. USD JPY The USD is trading at 102.62 against the JPY at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.35% higher from the New York close. Earlier in the Asian session, economic data indicated that gross domestic product (GDP) in Japan increased 0.9% (QoQ) in the first quarter of 2013, following a revised 0.3% increase recorded in the previous quarter. Market had expected a rise of 0.7%. Additionally, industrial production in the country fell 6.7% (YoY) in March, better than the 10.5% drop recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.67 and a low of 101.97. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.19% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.26. The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.06 and first resistance at 102.99. USD CHF This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9669 against the Swiss Franc, 0.10% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9710 and a low of 0.9644. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.36% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9659. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9626 and first resistance at 0.9731. USD CAD At 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0180 against the CAD, 0.16% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0194 and a low of 1.0150. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.30% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0164. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0146 and first resistance at 1.0217. AUD USD The AUD is trading at 0.9814 against the USD, at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.81% lower from the New York close. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s foreign exchange transactions increased to A$382 million in April, from A$328 million recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9915 and a low of 0.9800. AUD traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at 0.9894. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9769 and first resistance at 0.9890. Gold At 09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1374.81 per ounce, 1.48% lower from the New York close, amid strength in the US Dollar. The World Gold Council in a gold demand trends report for the period January-March 2013, stated that investors during the first quarter of 2013 didn’t buy enough physical gold to offset outflows from gold-exchanged traded funds. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1398.50 and a low of $1369.85 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 1.16% lower, and closed at $1395.50. Gold has its first support at $1356.84 and first resistance at $1405.79. Silver Silver is trading at $22.28 per ounce, 1.48% lower from the New York close, at 09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.83 and a low of $22.14 per ounce. Silver traded 1.35% lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at $22.61. Silver has its first support at $21.92 and first resistance at $22.86. Crude Oil At 09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $93.53 per barrel, 0.70% lower from the New York close, as concerns over global economic outlook weighed on demand prospects for crude oil. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $94.32 and a low of $93.23. Yesterday, Oil traded 1.32% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $94.21, after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its weekly report stated that crude oil stocks fell by 624,000 barrels in the week ending May10, while market had expected for a decline of 330,000 barrels. It has its first support at $92.29 and first resistance at $94.60. Economic Snapshot Euro-zone trade surplus widened in March In the Euro-zone, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, trade surplus widened to €22.9 billion in March, compared to a surplus of €10.1 billion in the previous month. Market had expected a trade surplus of €13.0 billion in March.  On a seasonally adjusted basis, trade surplus widened to €18.7 billion in March, compared to a surplus of €12.7 billion posted in the previous month. Euro-zone CPI rose in April In the Euro-zone, consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% (YoY) in April, in line with the preliminary estimate. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.1% in April, compared to a 1.2% rise in the previous month. French nonfarm payrolls declined in the Q12013 In France, nonfarm payrolls fell 0.1% (QoQ) in the Q12013, compared to a 0.3% decline in the Q42012. Italian trade surplus widened in March In Italy, global trade surplus widened to €3.237 billion in March, compared to a revised surplus of €1.092 billion reported in February. Additionally, trade surplus with the European Union countries widened to €0.607 billion in March, from a revised surplus of €0.386 billion in the previous month. Japan industrial production rose in March In Japan, industrial production rose 0.9% (MoM) in March, above the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% rise and compared to a 0.6% rise recorded in February. On an annual basis, industrial production fell 6.7% in March, compared to a 10.5% drop recorded in February. Japan capacity utilization declined in March In Japan, capacity utilization declined 0.8% (MoM) in March, compared to a 0.7% rise recorded in the previous month.

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

FXPRO Daily Forex Brief 16.05.2013

The Daily Forex Brief is written by FxPro's team in the City of London. Visit fxpro.co.uk  for more news, FX commentaries, FxPro TV, real-time feeds, calculators and tools. Daily Forex Brief London :Thursday 16th May 2013 If you are having problems viewing the chart, click here . Data/ Event Risks EUR: The inflation data is the final number, so not likely to be a market moving event, but if revised lower it could dent the euro a little as expectations of further stimulus measures from the ECB (negative deposit rate) resurface. USD: The better weekly claims data last week were a factor in the dollar surge seen into the close, so markets will be more sensitive than normal to the data. The market expects a small move higher, from 323k to 330k. Idea of the Day The latest GDP data from Japan reflected the still huge task facing the authorities. Headline growth was better than expected, the economy expanding 0.9% in the first quarter of the current year, but deflation was more entrenched, with the deflator declining 1.2% YoY. Still, this is the picture of the economy before the announcement of a doubling of the monetary base, made early last month. The other indicators seen so far have been a little more encouraging, with Japanese corporates seeing the benefits of the weaker yen, which has had longer to feed through and there are also early signs that wages are starting to adjust upwards, a key factor in breaking the deflationary psychology that has gripped Japan for much of the past twenty years. The firmer dollar stance has helped, with the dollar index within a whisker of making a near 3 year high yesterday. More of the same is on the cards for USDJPY ahead. Latest FX News JPY: Mixed messages from the GDP data this morning. Headline GDP growth was firmer than expected, rising 0.9% in the first quarter, with the final quarter of last year revised higher from 0.0% to 0.3%. The offset was the sharp decline in the GDP deflator (a broad measure of prices in the economy), which fell 1.2% YoY (last quarter was a 0.7% decline). The yen weakened, but only modestly so. AUD: The Aussie notably weaker during the Asia session, with a sustained move below the 0.9900 level. A combination of factors at play, including generally weaker commodity prices together with the softer global growth outlook, together with expectations of more domestic interest rate cuts. The Aussie has been the weakest on the majors so far this month, even over-taking the yen in the loser’s league table. GBP: A welcome change yesterday from the Bank of England, most notably with inflation projections being revised down and growth forecasts revised higher (most of the past few years have seen the opposite). This did given the pound a lift, but only a modest one. The 1.52 level still offers key support for sterling against the US dollar. EUR: Even the usually resilient euro is having a tough time fighting the firmer dollar tone, but is outperforming most others and peripheral markets continue to perform well. Just the CAD has performed better over the past week.

The Daily Forex Brief is brought to you by: Simon Smith What do you think about the Daily Forex Brief? Chief Economist Email your views direct to the Insights team at insights@fxpro.com

PRE US OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 16 MAY 2013

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GOLD CRUDE OIL

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

EUR/USD INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1.2915 Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.2915 with targets @ 1.2825 & 1.279 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.2915 look for further upside with 1.2945 & 1.2995 as targets. Comment: the pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance. NEXT » GBP/USD INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 1.5275 Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.5275 with targets @ 1.519 & 1.516 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.5275 look for further upside with 1.531 & 1.533 as targets. Comment: the pair remains under pressure and is challenging its support. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » USD/JPY INTRADAY: THE BIAS REMAINS BULLISH. Pivot: 101.75 Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 101.75 with targets @ 102.85 & 103.25 in extension. Alternative scenario: Below 101.75 look for further downside with 101.25 & 100.4 as targets. Comment: the pair has rebounded on its support and should post further advance as the RSI is well directed. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » AUD/USD INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 0.9885 Most Likely Scenario: Short @ 0.9865 with targets @ 0.976 & 0.9705 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 0.9885 look for further upside with 0.9915 & 0.996 as targets. Comment: the RSI is badly directed. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1399.00 Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1399 with 1365 & 1346 as next targets. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1399 will call for a rebound towards 1418 & 1431. Comment: the immediate trend remains down and the momentum is strong. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » CRUDE OIL (JUN 13) INTRADAY: REBOUND. Pivot: 93.25 Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 93.25 with 94.5 & 95.6 as next targets. Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 93.25 will call for 92.1 & 91.4. Comment: the June Crude Oil stands above the 50% fibonacci retracement level at 93.25. The upside prevails, as long as 93.25 isn't broken.

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia