FXPRO : Daily Forex Brief | Kiwi Risks

The Daily Forex Brief is written by FxPro's team in the City of London. Visit fxpro.co.uk  for more news, FX commentaries, FxPro TV, real-time feeds, calculators and tools. Daily Forex Brief London :Wednesday 8th May 2013 If you are having problems viewing the chart, click here . Data/ Event Risks EUR: Focus on the German production numbers after the stronger orders data yesterday gave the euro a lift, although it was notable that the euro failed to sustain the gains later on. Production is seen falling 0.1% in March, after 0.5% gain during February. NZD: Labour market data is released at 23:45 GMT, with the unemployment rate seen nudging lower to 6.8%. Note that AUDNZD has been moving lower for the previous 7 weeks now, but comments overnight threaten a continuation of this trend. GBP: The market will have half an eye on the state opening of parliament, but it’s not likely to be a market moving event. Idea of the Day Things are changing in FX, perhaps more so than usual. Three themes are worth noting. Firstly, the dollar’s positive correlation with data surprises has been falling, but this should not be that surprising. Earlier in the year, there was excitement at stronger data on the basis that this could mean the Fed withdrawing stimulus earlier than expected, but subsequent data and comments have undermined this. Secondly, the Aussie rate cut has further put to bed the risk-on/risk-off categorisation that dominated last year, but this has been a long-running theme. Finally, there is a lot more two-way traffic in the yen, so the dominant trend of the first quarter has turned a lot more neutral. What this leaves us with is a market currently more inclined to trade ranges, rather than push new territory. That was evident yesterday with USDJPY’s move away from the 100 level, the Aussie’s failure to test the year lows after the rate cut and the reluctance of the euro to hold above the 1.31 level. The CAD and the NZD are the main exceptions, with AUDNZD having pushed lower for the previous 7 weeks. Having failed to break below 1.20 on a sustained basis yesterday, keep an eye on AUDNZD for a possible reversal, especially in light of the latest comments from the central bank governor overnight, suggesting more intervention may have taken place to weaken the currency. Latest FX News JPY:Fighting the trends towards a stronger dollar and once again this lead to a push back from a test of 100 on USDJPY. EURJPY was the main mover on Tuesday, the push above 130 soon undermined by the afternoon’s change in tone. GBP: Suffering on Tuesday although not real specific factors were behind the move, with cable moving back below the 1.55 level. Overnight data suggested a weak retail picture, the BRC measure showing like for like sales falling 2.2% YoY. NZD: Revering some of the recent strength on the back of comments from the central bank chief Wheeler, who said that “there had been intervention” which will become evident in their balance sheet data later this month. EUR: The push above 1.31 on EURUSD soon met with sellers during the afternoon session, the euro suffering in line with sterling.

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PRE US OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 08 MAY 2013 EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GOLD CRUDE OIL Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. EUR/USD INTRADAY: THE BIAS REMAINS BULLISH. Pivot: 1.305 Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.305 with targets @ 1.315 & 1.318 in extension. Alternative scenario: Below 1.305 look for further downside with 1.302 & 1.299 as targets. Comment: the pair is rebounding and is challenging its resistance. NEXT » GBP/USD INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 1.5515 Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.5515 with targets @ 1.545 & 1.5415 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.5515 look for further upside with 1.554 & 1.557 as targets. Comment: the pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure, the RSI lacks upward momentum. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 99.1 Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 99.1 with targets @ 98.6 & 98.4 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 99.1 look for further upside with 99.5 & 99.75 as targets. Comment: the pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure, the RSI lacks upward momentum. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » AUD/USD INTRADAY: KEY ST RESISTANCE AT 1.02. Pivot: 1.02 Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.02 with targets @ 1.015 & 1.0125 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.02 look for further upside with 1.023 & 1.025 as targets. Comment: the pair is rebounding but stands below its new resistance, the RSI lacks upward momentum. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1466.00 Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1466 with targets @ 1441 & 1423. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1466 will call for 1488 & 1507. Comment: gold prices are capped by a declining trend line while a bearish flag pattern is taking place. As long as the resistance at 1466 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1441 remains high. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » CRUDE OIL (JUN 13) INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 96.30 Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 95.8 with 94.65 & 92.95 in sight. Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 96.3 will open the way to 97.2 & 98. Comment: the RSI has just broken below a rising trend line.

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