Showing posts with label AUD USD. Show all posts

Sunday, July 7, 2013

PaxForex start July with 395 pips

As every first Friday of the month we saw the non-farm payroll data orNFP out of the U.S. which on the headline came in better than expected and therefore plenty of currency charts have been temporarily disrupted which caused a spike in temporary floating losses in anti-USD crosses. Economists had forecasted that the U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs, but the report revealed total additions of 195,000 while theunemployment rate held steady at 7.6%.

Revisions to the prior two months showed an additional gain of 70,000 which further fueled hope at a recovery in the labor market. Those who decided to ignore the headline figure and dig a little bit deeper into the structure of the labor market were able to witness major problems. The number of discouraged workers or those who have part-time employment and seek a full time position surged to 14.3%. When you add this to the unemployment rate of 7.6% you arrive at a total figure of 21.9%.

Another sign of caution is the rise of part-time employments which rose to 28.1 Million. This eventually means that those positions will be eliminated and this will collapse the U.S. labor market which will send the unemployment rate back above double digits. Finally, over 50% of all created jobs are in the low income as well as low quality jobs which will not encourage greater economic activity. We expect the labor market to deteriorate over the course of the second-half of 2013.

Overview of profits for the week which ended July 5th

CADJPY: 195 pips
AUDUSD: 75 pips
USDCHF: 125 pips

Total Profits: 395 pips

Monday, July 1st

AUDNZD Long Recommendation

We recommended a long position at 1.1825 with a take profit level of 1.1925 (AUDNZD Falling Wedge). This pair corrected further and triggered our adjusted stop sell order at 1.1700 and currently this trade carries a floating trading loss of 162 pips. We will maintain our take profit target of 1.1925 for our long position and 1.1650 for our short hedge.

Tuesday, July 2nd

GBPUSD Long Recommendation

We recommended a long position at 1.5200 with a take profit level of 1.5525 (GBPUSD halts at Support). This pair moved lower and we canceled our stop sell order in anticipation of a negative surprise out of the NFP report which did not occur. This currency pair moved lower and we currently carry a floating trading loss of 316 pips. We will seek to add to this trade next week and maintain our take profit target of 1.5525.

Wednesday, July 3rd

AUDCAD Long Recommendation

We recommended a long position at 0.9550 with a take profit level of 0.9900 (AUDCAD Falling Wedge). This pair moved higher and we carry a floating trading profit of 31 pips. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.9900.

Thursday, July 4th

EURUSD Long Recommendation

We recommended a long position at 1.2925 with a take profit level 1.3175 (EURUSD Pre-NFP). This pair moved lower and we canceled our stop sell order in anticipation of a negative surprise out of the NFP report which did not occur. This currency pair moved lower and we currently carry a floating trading loss of 173 pips. We will seek to add to this trade next week and maintain our take profit target of 1.3175.

Exit from trades of previous weeks

CADJPY Long Position

We closed our open CADJPY long position on July 2nd for a profit of 195 pips as we closed this trade at 94.95.

AUDUSD Hedge

We closed our open AUDUSD hedge on July 3rd for a profit of 75 pips as we closed this position at 0.9075.

USDCHF Hedge

We closed our open USDCHF hedge on July 5th for a profit if 125 pips as we closed this position at 0.9630.

We had a total of four new trading recommendations this week which all remain open and have not created profits yet. Our four trading recommendations form this week carry a floating trading loss of 620pips. We have closed one trade plus two hedges from previous weeks for profits of 395 pips which total our weekly profits and mark a good start for July.

In addition to our four trades from this week we also have eight positions from previous weeks. We have two open USDCHF short positions which currently carry a floating trading loss of 694 pips. This represents an increase of 357 pips compared to last week. We will seek to add one final short position to this trade next week.

We have one open USDCAD short positions which currently carries a floating trading loss of 65 pips. This represents an increase of 63 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 1.0400.

We have four open NZDUSD positions, three long positions and one short hedge, which currently carry a floating trading loss of 928 pips. This represents an increase of 64 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.8235.

We have four open EURGBP positions, three short positions and one long hedge, which currently carry a floating trading loss of 1,625 pips. This represents an increase of 203 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.8275.

We have three open EURAUD positions, two short positions and one long hedge, which currently carry a floating trading loss of 2,292 pips. This represents a decrease of 62 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 1.3585.

We have three open AUDUSD long positions which currently carry a floating trading loss of 1,604 pips. This represents an increase of 231 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.9630.

We have four open AUDJPY positions, three long positions and one short hedge, which currently carry a floating trading loss of 900 pips. This represents a decrease of 190 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 94.00.

We have three open AUDCHF long positions which currently carry a floating trading loss of 1,390 pips. This represents a decrease of 297 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.9250.

Our total floating trading loss at the end of the week stood at 10,118 pips and represents a 2013 high which we expect to also represent the peak of our floating trading losses. This represents an increase of 1,109 pips or 12.31% which is also represents an all-time record. This was primarily due to the positive surprise in the NFP data which added to our losses as the USD surged against all major currencies. We expect this move to reverse over the summer.

Losses to related to the AUD accounted for 6,317 pips or 62.43% of all floating trading losses and is down 187 pips or 2.88% compared to last week. USD crosses accounted for 3,780 pips or 37.36% of all floating trading losses. Overall we expect to witness a gradual improvement albeit at a slower pace than desired in out floating trading losses.

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities.

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Tuesday, June 4, 2013

MAYZUS : Dollar Smoked After ISM

The market is hooked on the whims of US economic data with Fed tapering on the horizon. A soft ISM manufacturing reading Monday crushed the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar had its best day of 2013, climbing nearly 200 pips ahead of today's RBA decision. Ashraf is on travel in the MidEast. A new edition of the Premium Insights will be released on Tuesday. EURUSD and 1 of USDJPY were stopped out, 1 of 3 AUDUSD are in progress.

The USD/JPY bulls were wavering ahead of the ISM manufacturing PMI and they cracked when the numbers were released. The index fell to 49.0 which is in contractionary territory for the first time since November and below the 50.7 expected.

The miss in the data was sizable but not incredible but it didn't matter to the market. Traders had grown overwhelmingly long the US dollar in May and everyone seemingly rushed for the exits at the same time. USD/JPY broke below 100 and then 99 to as low as 98.87.

Other USD moves were also dramatic. EUR/USD, which slumped to 1.2956 ahead of the data whipsawed traders and rallied to 1.3100. The Canadian dollar posted its best gain in a year with USD/CAD falling a fell cent to 1.0276.

Late in the day, USD/JPY and other pairs retraced some of the moves after a Reuters story suggested Japan's public pension could be planning to shift investments to riskier and foreign assets. In addition, a late gain in the S&P 500 sparked some USD buying.

The most impressive move of the day was in the Australian dollar, as it climbed two cents to as high as 0.9792. The RBA interest rate decision is at 0430 GMT and will be the highlight of the session. The statement after last month's cut didn't indicate that further cuts were imminent so expectations are low for any change.

Instead, the focus will be on comments about investment, the domestic economy and the Australian dollar. Any indications about further cuts could quickly reverse Monday's AUD gains.

by Adam Button

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DIRECTFX : Daily Currency Report

Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies.
Earlier in the Asian session, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi stated that there are few signs of a possible stabilization in the Euro region and the economic situation still “remains challenging”.
The Euro rose higher, underpinned by improved risk appetite after data released this morning revealed that manufacturing PMI data across the Europe posted better-than-expected figures in May.
The Pound gained traction this morning, after UK’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in 14 months in May, boosting optimism that nation's recovery is becoming more broad based and less reliant on the services sector.
The Yen recovered from its previous session losses this morning, after the IMF warned on Friday that, the Japanese currency has fallen enough to a level “moderately below” its natural trading value.
The Australian is trading higher despite data indicated that retail sales in the nation rose less-than-expected in April. Also, official data from China, Australia’s major trading partner showed that, factory activity shrank for the first time in seven months in May and growth in services activity slowed down in the same month. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting tomorrow would be of much interest to the investors, with most of the market participants expecting the rate to remain on hold at its record low of 2.75%.

EUR USD
This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3030 against the USD, 0.38% higher from the New York close. In the Euro-zone, manufacturing PMI data from Germany and France rose slightly more-than-expected in May, while Italian manufacturing activity rose to a four-month high in the same month. Additionally, European manufacturing activity eased in May. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3044 and a low of 1.2987. On Friday, EUR traded 0.07% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.2981.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2967 and first resistance at 1.3068.

GBP USD
At 09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5270 against the USD, 0.57% higher from the New York close, after manufacturing PMI in the UK rose to a reading of 51.3 in May, from a revised reading of 50.2 recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the index to remain unchanged. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5289 and a low of 1.5196. On Friday, GBP traded 0.23% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5183.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5177 and first resistance at 1.5326.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 100.36 against the JPY at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.31% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 100.77 and a low of 100.03. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.19% higher against the JPY, and closed at 100.67.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 99.85 and first resistance at 101.04.

USD CHF
This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9564 against the Swiss Franc, 0.39% lower from the New York close. In Switzerland, the SVME PMI expanded in the month of May, recording a reading of 52.2, from a reading of 50.2 in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9580 and a low of 0.9541. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.53% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.9601.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9509 and first resistance at 0.9623.

USD CAD
At 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0368 against the CAD, marginally higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0376 and a low of 1.0343. On Friday, the USD traded 0.56% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0367.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0318 and first resistance at 1.0400.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9643 against the USD, at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.74% higher from the New York close. Data released from Australia indicated that retail sales rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.2% (MoM) in April, compared to a 0.4% drop recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9653 and a low of 0.9598. AUD traded 0.25% lower against the USD in the New York session on Friday, and closed at 0.9572.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9576 and first resistance at 0.9681.

Gold
At 09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1396.35 per ounce, 0.61% higher from the New York close, amid weakness in the US Dollar. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1401.95 and a low of $1391.38 per ounce. In the New York session on Friday, the yellow metal traded 1.37% lower, and closed at $1387.92.

Gold has its first support at $1382.76 and first resistance at $1412.25.

Silver
Silver is trading at $22.46 per ounce, 0.89% higher from the New York close, at 09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.55 and a low of $22.33 per ounce. Silver traded 0.14% lower against the USD in the New York session on Friday, and closed at $22.26.

Silver has its first support at $22.21 and first resistance at $22.67.

Crude Oil
At 09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $92.01 per barrel, 0.40% higher from the New York close, as weak Chinese manufacturing data dampened demand prospects for the oil. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $92.09 and a low of $91.37. On Friday, Oil traded 0.95% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $91.63.

It has its first support at $91.08 and first resistance at $93.12.

Economic Snapshot

UK’s manufacturing PMI rose in May
In the UK, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) advanced to a reading of 51.3 in May, from a revised reading of 50.2.

Euro-zone’s manufacturing PMI advanced in May
In the Euro-zone, the final manufacturing PMI climbed to a reading of 48.3 in May, higher than the flash reading of 47.8 and following a reading of 46.7 in April.

Germany's manufacturing sector activity improved in May
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the manufacturing PMI in Germany edged up to a reading of 49.4 in May, from a reading of 48.1 registered in April. Market had expected a reading of 49.0.

French manufacturing PMI records a rise in May
In France, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI rose to a reading of 46.4 in May, higher than the expected reading of 45.5 and from a reading of 44.4 in April.

Switzerland's manufacturing PMI rose in May
The Swiss Association of Purchasing and Materials Management reported that its SVME manufacturing PMI in Switzerland rose to a reading of 52.2 in May, much higher than the expected reading of 50.8 in May and from a reading of 50.2 recorded in April.

Italy’s manufacturing PMI increased more-than-expected in May
In Italy, manufacturing PMI rose more than the expected to a reading of 47.3 in May, compared to a reading of 45.5 registered in the previous month.

Spain’s manufacturing PMI rose in May
Spain’s manufacturing PMI advanced to reading of 48.1 in May, above market consensus for a reading of 45.5 and compared to a reading of 44.7 recorded in April.

Australia TD securities inflation eased in May
On a monthly basis, TD securities inflation in Australia slipped to 0.2% in May, from 0.3% reported in April. Annually, TD securities inflation increased to 2.2% in May, from 2.1% in April.

Australia retail sales rose in April
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales in Australia increased 0.2% in April, lower than the expected 0.3% rise and compared to 0.4% fall recorded in the previous month.

China's non-manufacturing PMI slipped in May
In China, the non-manufacturing PMI declined to a reading of 54.3 in May, from a reading of 54.5 registered in the previous month.

China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI fell in May
According to the survey data from Markit/HSBC, manufacturing PMI in China fell to a reading of 49.2 in May, from a reading of 50.4 registered in the previous month.

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Monday, June 3, 2013

USD Leads May Despite Last 3 Days

by Adam Button

Jun 3, 2013 0:21

A strong official PMI from China contrasted a weak reading on the sector from HSBC. Despite a three day slump to end the month, the US dollar was easily the best performer in May while the Australian dollar lagged badly. Weekly CFTC positioning data show growing AUD and CHF shorts. We reintroduced USDCHF after a long absence from the Premium Insights with 2 new trades and monthly and weekly charts. 1 EURUSD remain in progress as well as 3 USDJPY, 2 EURJPY, 2 USDCAD and 1 silver. For full detail, see latest Premium Insights.

The official manufacutring sentiment survey from China rose to 50.8 compared to 50.0 expected and 50.6 in April. The number could give the Australian dollar some respite to start the week but traders may be skeptical. The PMI earlier in the week from HSBC slipped to 49.6 from 50.4 in April.

There is also uncertainty about the US manufacturing. Signs were pointing to a worsening slump until Fridaywhen the Chicago PMI soared to 58.7 compared to 50.0 expected. In the span of a month, the index when from the lowest since 2009 to the highest since early 2012.

We caution that it's only one month and one data point but renewed strength from US factories would be another reason to buy the US dollar. The other data point on Friday was the PCE report, which showed core inflation up 1.1% compared to 1.0% y/y expected. Rising inflation could give the Fed an incentive to taper QE, which could be a major boost for the US dollar. One negative part of the report was personal spending, which fell 0.2% in April. Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR -85K vs -81K prior JPY -100K vs -95K prior GBP -75K vs -77K prior AUD -42K vs -32K prior CAD -33K vs -34K prior NZD +14K vs +18K prior CHF -29K vs -20K prior US Dollar Index longs at 46K vs 43K prior

The market has quietly built up the largest short position in CHF in 11 months. There are always rumors about hiking the EUR/CHF floor but it's mostly a trade on dollar strength and improving fundamentals in Europe.

Meanwhile, euro shorts are showing no sign of quitting even though more than half of the short position was initiate in the past two weeks – all of which are underwater. It's also interesting to note the lack of movement in NZD despite the rush in Australian dollar shorts. The carry is better in New Zealand but it's difficult to imagine the divergence continuing.

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Tuesday, May 28, 2013

DIRECTFX 28.05.2013 : Daily Currency Report

Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading higher against most of the major currencies.
The Euro came under pressure, after data released this morning indicated that French consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in May. Yesterday, the Standard and Poor’s rating agency warned that France must deliver its promised budget cuts to avoid a credit rating downgrade. Meanwhile, import prices in Germany dropped more-than-expected in the month of April.
The Yen is trading lower against the dollar, after the advisor to the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, Koichi Hamada stated that the Bank of Japan would provide further stimulus, if necessary, to drive an economic revival.
The Swiss Franc is trading lower against the USD and the EUR, after data revealed that trade surplus in Switzerland unexpectedly narrowed for April, largely affected by a steep fall in exports due to sluggish demand in Europe, the nation’s biggest trading partner.
The US consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index which are scheduled for release later in the day are expected to trigger much of the action in the forex market.
The greenback traded higher in the New York session yesterday, against the key currencies.

EUR USD
This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.2926 against the USD, marginally lower from the New York close. In economic news, German import prices dropped 1.4% (MoM) in April, against the expectation of a 0.5% drop. Additionally, French consumer confidence index dropped unexpectedly to a reading of 79.0 in May, from a revised reading of 83.0 recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.2936 and a low of 1.2882. Yesterday, EUR traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.2932.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2889 and first resistance at 1.2957.

GBP USD
At 09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5103 against the USD, marginally lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5115 and a low of 1.5064. Yesterday, GBP traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5110.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5057 and first resistance at 1.5143.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.02 against the JPY at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.92% higher from the New York close, snapping yen’s recent rally stemming from concerns about a climb in Japanese government bond yields. On the data front, Japanese retail trade data is awaited later in the day which is expected to remain unchanged in April, compared to a 1.4% drop recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.35 and a low of 101.05. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.08% higher against the JPY, and closed at 101.09.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 101.08 and first resistance at 102.68.

USD CHF
This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9681 against the Swiss Franc, 0.54% higher from the New York close. The Swiss Franc recorded losses after trade surplus in Switzerland narrowed to CHF1.73 billion in April, from a revised CHF1.89 billion recorded in the previous month. However, employment level in the nation rose to a seasonally adjusted 4.15 million in the first quarter of 2013, from 4.12 million recorded in the previous quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9706 and a low of 0.9624. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded marginally lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9629.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9624 and first resistance at 0.9726.

USD CAD
At 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0346 against the CAD, 0.07% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0369 and a low of 1.0333. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.14% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0339.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0319 and first resistance at 1.0376.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9663 against the USD, at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.29% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9682 and a low of 0.9596. AUD traded 0.09% lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at 0.9635.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9615 and first resistance at 0.9701.

Gold
At 09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1380.16 per ounce, 1.04% lower from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1396.62 and a low of $1377.69 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded marginally lower, and closed at $1394.80.

Gold has its first support at $1372.85 and first resistance at $1392.31.

Silver
Silver is trading at $22.34 per ounce, 1.29% lower from the New York close, at 09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.68 and a low of $22.27 per ounce. Silver traded 0.16% lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at $22.64.

Silver has its first support at $22.15 and first resistance at $22.65.

Crude Oil
At 09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $94.68 per barrel, 1.10% higher from the New York close, on supply concerns escalating from violence in Syria, one of the major oil exporters. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $94.76 and a low of $93.54. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.18% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $93.63.

It has its first support at $93.78 and first resistance at $95.17.

Economic Snapshot

German import price index fell in April
In Germany, import price index fell 3.2% (YoY) in April, compared to a 2.3% drop in March. On a monthly basis, import price index declined 1.4% in April, compared to a 0.1% drop recorded in the previous month.

French consumer confidence declined more-than-expected in May
In France, consumer confidence declined to a reading of 79.0 in May, from a downwardly revised reading of 83.0 in April. Market had expected consumer confidence to rise to a reading of 85.0.

Swiss trade surplus narrowed in April
In Switzerland, trade surplus narrowed to CHF1.73 billion in April, compared to a surplus of CHF1.89 billion recorded in the previous month. Market had expected trade surplus to widen to CHF2.05 billion. Additionally, exports rose to CHF17.00 billion in April, compared to CHF16.66 billion in the previous month. Imports rose to CHF15.28 billion in April, compared to CHF14.77 billion in the previous month.

Swiss employment level rose in the Q1 2013
In Switzerland, employment level rose to 4.15 million in the first quarter of 2013, compared to a level of 4.12 million in the previous quarter. Market had expected employment level to fall to 4.10 million.

Small business confidence in Japan declined in May
In Japan, the small business confidence index weakened to a reading of 48.2 in May, compared to a reading of 49.4 in April. Market had expected the index to rise to a reading of 50.0.

Leading index in China declined in April
In China, leading index fell to a reading of 99.8 in April, compared to a reading of 100.0 in March.

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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

FXPRO : Daily Forex Brief | More good news for sterling?

The Daily Forex Brief is written by FxPro's team in the City of London. Visit fxpro.co.uk

for more news, FX commentaries, FxPro TV, real-time feeds, calculators and tools.

Daily Forex Brief

London :Tuesday 21st May 2013

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Data/ Event Risks

GBP: The inflation data today will be a key focus, with PPI (producer prices) also released. We would agree with the market view that CPI inflation should moderate from 2.8% to 2.6%. If seen, this would be the first fall in headline inflation for 7 months. For now, it’s unlikely that sterling will be badly hit if we see a number lower than 2.6% as for now, expectations of more QE are being held back by the transition to the new Governor.

USD: The dollar is waiting for the Fed minutes tomorrow and the testimony by the Fed Chairman Bernanke to Congress. There are more speakers from the US Fed today and dollar is proving to be more sensitive than normal to what members are saying. Both Bullard and Dudley are currently voting members of the FOMC.

Idea of the Day

It’s been something of a fight but sterling has been struggling to keep its head above water after last week’s more upbeat news from the Bank of England, fighting against the stronger tone of the dollar. For the first time in recent history, the Bank was able to downgrade inflation forecasts and upgrade growth. A couple of years ago, the UK was beset by inflation coming in above expectations, but the past 5 releases have come in bang in line with market expectations. It has been 11 months since inflation has come in below expectations, so if seen, this could be taken as a further sign of good news on the economy. Sterling is unlikely to fall significantly on this scenario as expectations of further quantitative easing are constrained by the fact that the market is not going to push for more QE until the new governor is at the helm of the Bank in July.

Latest FX News

JPY: A modestly weaker tone to the yen, with the latest BoJ meeting taking place today and tomorrow. After the extent of policy measures announced in April, there are no strong expectations of more from this week’s meeting, but the market is naturally a little nervous nonetheless.

AUD: If the gains made in the Asia session are maintained, then this will be the first time this month the Aussie has risen on two consecutive days. The minutes to the RBA meeting (where rates were cut to 2.75%) did not boost near-term rate cut expectations, allowing the Aussie to outperform in the Asia session for the second consecutive day.

NZD: A second day of gains, but trumped by the Aussie, meaning another push below the 1.20 level on AUDNZD.

EUR: Holding steady for now, having fought against the former dollar tone of the past two weeks, with EURJPY also holding to a tight range. German PPI data in line with expectations at the start of European trading, rising 0.1% YoY.

The Daily Forex Brief is brought to you by:
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MAYZUS : 21 MAY 2013: GOLD REBOUNDS AS USD WEAKENS

21 MAY 2013: GOLD REBOUNDS AS USD WEAKENS

Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Gold Rebounds
As USD Weakens

Gold and Silver rebounded strongly yesterday after the onslaught at the end of last week, and in Asia on Monday morning. Both the precious metals fell nearly 5 %. Gold trades at USD 1387 an ounce in Asia, 35 dollars up from the lows 24 hours ago. Silver trades at USD 22,70 rebounding from a low of 21.00 and reached USD 23, at the start of the Asian trading session. The cautious comments from representatives from the US Federal Reserve (FED) regarding the bond-buying stimulus, have weakened the USD.

In a statement on Monday, the President of the Federal Reserve in Chicago followed up last week’s comments from another regional FED president, that the bond-buying program might end abruptly in the autumn if, by then, the FED was sure that the labour market was on solid footing. Earlier, the FED put a 6,5 % unemployment statistic as the critical mark. The last published data showed a 7,6 % unemployment statistic. The aggressive monetary easing policies now also followed by Japan, has given global stock markets a strong boost.

US-stocks ended flat on Monday with indexes hovering near record levels. Concerns about a stop in bond-buying and a correction are influencing markets. Energy stocks and primarily solar companies soared. Dow Jones saw an intraday high at 15 391. S&P reached 1 672. Both indexes are up 17 % since January 1st. Investors are split between nervousness for a strong correction due to the sharpness and length of the rally, and those who are afraid to miss a continued rally.

European shares set a new five-year high for the fourth straight session on Monday, after positive indicators from The United States and Japan pointed to an improving global economic outlook. European blue chip stocks (Financial Times Eurofirst 300 index) was up one percent, which is the highest level seen since mid 2008. The positive US consumer sentiment data from Friday, the highest level seen in almost six years, is seen as especially encouraging. EasyJet and Ryan Air were among the biggest gainers.

The Japanese Yen tumbled yesterday after comments from its Minister of Economy, warning that the currency might have weakened enough. USD/JPY fell to 102 after Friday’s high on 103,22, but has rebounded to 102,22. Oil prices are keeping steady. Brent crude trades at USD 104,83 a barrel. FED Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement to Congress on Wednesday will be crucial for the further development in currencies and global equity markets.

AUD/USD intraday: further advance.

Pivot: 0.975
Our preference: Long positions above 0.975 with targets @ 0.985 & 0.988 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.975 look for further downside with 0.9705 & 0.967 as targets.
Comment: a support base at 0.975 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

TRADE BERSAMA KAMI SEKARANG ! Sangkalan Analisis kami berikan didasarkan pada perkiraan rata-rata pergerakan harga dalam satu hari. Tidak menjamin apa yang kami hasilkan sebenarnya adalah tepat dan benar. Segala sesuatu yang terjadi dalam keputusan yang Anda buat pada transaksi trading anda adalah menjadi tanggung jawab Anda.

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Thursday, May 16, 2013

XEMARKETS AUD/USD Continues Dramatic Plunge

May 16, 2013 – AUD/USD (daily chart) has continued its week-long plunge that initiated on a clean breakdown below the major 1.0150 support level late last week. That move broke the longstanding trading range that had been in place for the previous ten months. Since that breakdown, price has proceeded to breach parity (1.0000) and then hit key support further down around the 0.9850 level yesterday. Currently, price has broken below that level as well, establishing a new 11-month low in the process. The downtrend is currently showing few signs of relenting. With key upside resistance now residing around parity, the next major downside price objectives reside around 0.9650 and then 0.9400, both of which are important prior support/resistance levels.

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DIRECTFX : Daily Currency Report

Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading higher against most of the major currencies, after the Federal Reserve official, Charles Plosser expressed concerns over the long term impact of the quantitative easing, urging the central bank to exit its policy soon.
Ahead today investors await a raft of economic data that could offer further evidence on whether an economic recovery remains under way in the US.
Yesterday’s weak Euro-zone GDP data continued to weigh on the Euro, as speculation increased that the European Central Bank (ECB) would opt for negative rates very soon. The expectations are further reinforced after today’s data from France indicated that employment in the country continued to decline in Q12013. However, losses were capped after reports showed that trade surplus from Italy and Euro-zone widened in March.
On a ratings note, Fitch Ratings affirmed Slovakia’s sovereign rating at “A+”, with a “Stable” outlook, citing strongest economic growth achieved by the nation since the global financial crisis began in 2008-09.
As the aggressive monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) guided by Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe bear fruits, Japan recorded a spell bound increase in its GDP figures in the first quarter of 2013. Also, industrial production in the country increased in the month of March. Moreover, Fitch ratings affirmed Japan at “A+” rating with a “Negative” outlook.
The greenback traded lower in the New York session yesterday against the key currencies.

EUR USD
This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.2875 against the USD, marginally lower from the New York close. In the Euro-zone, annual CPI rose 1.2%, in line with the preliminary estimate, while trade surplus rose to a seasonally adjusted €18.7 billion in March, from a revised €12.7 billion recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, France recorded a 0.1% drop in its quarterly nonfarm payrolls in Q12013, compared to a 0.3% drop in the previous quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.2890 and a low of 1.2846. Yesterday, EUR traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.2880.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2848 and first resistance at 1.2896.

GBP USD
At 09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5229 against the USD, marginally higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5249 and a low of 1.5197. Yesterday, GBP traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5226.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5178 and first resistance at 1.5275.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.62 against the JPY at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.35% higher from the New York close. Earlier in the Asian session, economic data indicated that gross domestic product (GDP) in Japan increased 0.9% (QoQ) in the first quarter of 2013, following a revised 0.3% increase recorded in the previous quarter. Market had expected a rise of 0.7%. Additionally, industrial production in the country fell 6.7% (YoY) in March, better than the 10.5% drop recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.67 and a low of 101.97. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.19% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.26.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.06 and first resistance at 102.99.

USD CHF
This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9669 against the Swiss Franc, 0.10% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9710 and a low of 0.9644. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.36% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9659.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9626 and first resistance at 0.9731.

USD CAD
At 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0180 against the CAD, 0.16% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0194 and a low of 1.0150. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.30% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0164.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0146 and first resistance at 1.0217.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9814 against the USD, at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.81% lower from the New York close. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s foreign exchange transactions increased to A$382 million in April, from A$328 million recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9915 and a low of 0.9800. AUD traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at 0.9894.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9769 and first resistance at 0.9890.

Gold
At 09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1374.81 per ounce, 1.48% lower from the New York close, amid strength in the US Dollar. The World Gold Council in a gold demand trends report for the period January-March 2013, stated that investors during the first quarter of 2013 didn’t buy enough physical gold to offset outflows from gold-exchanged traded funds. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1398.50 and a low of $1369.85 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 1.16% lower, and closed at $1395.50.

Gold has its first support at $1356.84 and first resistance at $1405.79.

Silver
Silver is trading at $22.28 per ounce, 1.48% lower from the New York close, at 09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.83 and a low of $22.14 per ounce. Silver traded 1.35% lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at $22.61.

Silver has its first support at $21.92 and first resistance at $22.86.

Crude Oil
At 09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $93.53 per barrel, 0.70% lower from the New York close, as concerns over global economic outlook weighed on demand prospects for crude oil. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $94.32 and a low of $93.23. Yesterday, Oil traded 1.32% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $94.21, after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its weekly report stated that crude oil stocks fell by 624,000 barrels in the week ending May10, while market had expected for a decline of 330,000 barrels.

It has its first support at $92.29 and first resistance at $94.60.

Economic Snapshot

Euro-zone trade surplus widened in March
In the Euro-zone, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, trade surplus widened to €22.9 billion in March, compared to a surplus of €10.1 billion in the previous month. Market had expected a trade surplus of €13.0 billion in March. On a seasonally adjusted basis, trade surplus widened to €18.7 billion in March, compared to a surplus of €12.7 billion posted in the previous month.

Euro-zone CPI rose in April
In the Euro-zone, consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% (YoY) in April, in line with the preliminary estimate. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.1% in April, compared to a 1.2% rise in the previous month.

French nonfarm payrolls declined in the Q12013
In France, nonfarm payrolls fell 0.1% (QoQ) in the Q12013, compared to a 0.3% decline in the Q42012.

Italian trade surplus widened in March
In Italy, global trade surplus widened to €3.237 billion in March, compared to a revised surplus of €1.092 billion reported in February. Additionally, trade surplus with the European Union countries widened to €0.607 billion in March, from a revised surplus of €0.386 billion in the previous month.

Japan industrial production rose in March
In Japan, industrial production rose 0.9% (MoM) in March, above the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% rise and compared to a 0.6% rise recorded in February. On an annual basis, industrial production fell 6.7% in March, compared to a 10.5% drop recorded in February.

Japan capacity utilization declined in March
In Japan, capacity utilization declined 0.8% (MoM) in March, compared to a 0.7% rise recorded in the previous month.

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DIRECTFX : Daily Currency Report

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