Intraday Analysis Update Wed Dec - 11

Intraday Markets

Could USA oil supplies data cause WTI oil to flirt with the critical $100 a barrel level?

Wednesday sees the publication of USA oil supplies data, expected to print at -5.6 bn barrels, whilst the USA federal budget balance is expected to print at $154.6 bn, significantly worsening from the previous month's figure of $91.6 bn. In New Zealand the cash rate is announced, predicted to stay the same at 2.5%. The press conference, the rate statement and the policy statement will accompany the announcement of the base interest rate, finally later that evening the RBNZ governor Wheeler will conduct a conference.

see more at : Intraday Analysis Update Wed Dec - 11

Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities.

Intraday Analysis Update Tue Dec -10

ECOFIN meetings might affect Euro direction, whilst important USA economic data is published in the New York session see more at : 

Intraday Analysis Update Tue Dec -10

Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities.

PaxForex start July with 395 pips

As every first Friday of the month we saw the non-farm payroll data orNFP out of the U.S. which on the headline came in better than expected and therefore plenty of currency charts have been temporarily disrupted which caused a spike in temporary floating losses in anti-USD crosses. Economists had forecasted that the U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs, but the report revealed total additions of 195,000 while theunemployment rate held steady at 7.6%.

Revisions to the prior two months showed an additional gain of 70,000 which further fueled hope at a recovery in the labor market. Those who decided to ignore the headline figure and dig a little bit deeper into the structure of the labor market were able to witness major problems. The number of discouraged workers or those who have part-time employment and seek a full time position surged to 14.3%. When you add this to the unemployment rate of 7.6% you arrive at a total figure of 21.9%.

Another sign of caution is the rise of part-time employments which rose to 28.1 Million. This eventually means that those positions will be eliminated and this will collapse the U.S. labor market which will send the unemployment rate back above double digits. Finally, over 50% of all created jobs are in the low income as well as low quality jobs which will not encourage greater economic activity. We expect the labor market to deteriorate over the course of the second-half of 2013.

Overview of profits for the week which ended July 5th

• CADJPY: 195 pips
• AUDUSD: 75 pips
• USDCHF: 125 pips

Total Profits: 395 pips

Monday, July 1st

AUDNZD Long Recommendation

We recommended a long position at 1.1825 with a take profit level of 1.1925 (AUDNZD Falling Wedge). This pair corrected further and triggered our adjusted stop sell order at 1.1700 and currently this trade carries a floating trading loss of 162 pips. We will maintain our take profit target of 1.1925 for our long position and 1.1650 for our short hedge.

Tuesday, July 2nd

GBPUSD Long Recommendation

We recommended a long position at 1.5200 with a take profit level of 1.5525 (GBPUSD halts at Support). This pair moved lower and we canceled our stop sell order in anticipation of a negative surprise out of the NFP report which did not occur. This currency pair moved lower and we currently carry a floating trading loss of 316 pips. We will seek to add to this trade next week and maintain our take profit target of 1.5525.

Wednesday, July 3rd

AUDCAD Long Recommendation

We recommended a long position at 0.9550 with a take profit level of 0.9900 (AUDCAD Falling Wedge). This pair moved higher and we carry a floating trading profit of 31 pips. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.9900.

Thursday, July 4th

EURUSD Long Recommendation

We recommended a long position at 1.2925 with a take profit level 1.3175 (EURUSD Pre-NFP). This pair moved lower and we canceled our stop sell order in anticipation of a negative surprise out of the NFP report which did not occur. This currency pair moved lower and we currently carry a floating trading loss of 173 pips. We will seek to add to this trade next week and maintain our take profit target of 1.3175.

Exit from trades of previous weeks

CADJPY Long Position

We closed our open CADJPY long position on July 2nd for a profit of 195 pips as we closed this trade at 94.95.

AUDUSD Hedge

We closed our open AUDUSD hedge on July 3rd for a profit of 75 pips as we closed this position at 0.9075.

USDCHF Hedge

We closed our open USDCHF hedge on July 5th for a profit if 125 pips as we closed this position at 0.9630.

We had a total of four new trading recommendations this week which all remain open and have not created profits yet. Our four trading recommendations form this week carry a floating trading loss of 620pips. We have closed one trade plus two hedges from previous weeks for profits of 395 pips which total our weekly profits and mark a good start for July.

In addition to our four trades from this week we also have eight positions from previous weeks. We have two open USDCHF short positions which currently carry a floating trading loss of 694 pips. This represents an increase of 357 pips compared to last week. We will seek to add one final short position to this trade next week.

We have one open USDCAD short positions which currently carries a floating trading loss of 65 pips. This represents an increase of 63 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 1.0400.

We have four open NZDUSD positions, three long positions and one short hedge, which currently carry a floating trading loss of 928 pips. This represents an increase of 64 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.8235.

We have four open EURGBP positions, three short positions and one long hedge, which currently carry a floating trading loss of 1,625 pips. This represents an increase of 203 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.8275.

We have three open EURAUD positions, two short positions and one long hedge, which currently carry a floating trading loss of 2,292 pips. This represents a decrease of 62 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 1.3585.

We have three open AUDUSD long positions which currently carry a floating trading loss of 1,604 pips. This represents an increase of 231 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.9630.

We have four open AUDJPY positions, three long positions and one short hedge, which currently carry a floating trading loss of 900 pips. This represents a decrease of 190 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 94.00.

We have three open AUDCHF long positions which currently carry a floating trading loss of 1,390 pips. This represents a decrease of 297 pips compared to last week. We will maintain our take profit target of 0.9250.

Our total floating trading loss at the end of the week stood at 10,118 pips and represents a 2013 high which we expect to also represent the peak of our floating trading losses. This represents an increase of 1,109 pips or 12.31% which is also represents an all-time record. This was primarily due to the positive surprise in the NFP data which added to our losses as the USD surged against all major currencies. We expect this move to reverse over the summer.

Losses to related to the AUD accounted for 6,317 pips or 62.43% of all floating trading losses and is down 187 pips or 2.88% compared to last week. USD crosses accounted for 3,780 pips or 37.36% of all floating trading losses. Overall we expect to witness a gradual improvement albeit at a slower pace than desired in out floating trading losses.

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

MAYZUS : Dollar Smoked After ISM

The market is hooked on the whims of US economic data with Fed tapering on the horizon. A soft ISM manufacturing reading Monday crushed the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar had its best day of 2013, climbing nearly 200 pips ahead of today's RBA decision. Ashraf is on travel in the MidEast. A new edition of the Premium Insights will be released on Tuesday. EURUSD and 1 of USDJPY were stopped out, 1 of 3 AUDUSD are in progress.

The USD/JPY bulls were wavering ahead of the ISM manufacturing PMI and they cracked when the numbers were released. The index fell to 49.0 which is in contractionary territory for the first time since November and below the 50.7 expected.

The miss in the data was sizable but not incredible but it didn't matter to the market. Traders had grown overwhelmingly long the US dollar in May and everyone seemingly rushed for the exits at the same time. USD/JPY broke below 100 and then 99 to as low as 98.87.

Other USD moves were also dramatic. EUR/USD, which slumped to 1.2956 ahead of the data whipsawed traders and rallied to 1.3100. The Canadian dollar posted its best gain in a year with USD/CAD falling a fell cent to 1.0276.

Late in the day, USD/JPY and other pairs retraced some of the moves after a Reuters story suggested Japan's public pension could be planning to shift investments to riskier and foreign assets. In addition, a late gain in the S&P 500 sparked some USD buying.

The most impressive move of the day was in the Australian dollar, as it climbed two cents to as high as 0.9792. The RBA interest rate decision is at 0430 GMT and will be the highlight of the session. The statement after last month's cut didn't indicate that further cuts were imminent so expectations are low for any change.

Instead, the focus will be on comments about investment, the domestic economy and the Australian dollar. Any indications about further cuts could quickly reverse Monday's AUD gains.

by Adam Button

 

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

DIRECTFX : Daily Currency Report

Forex Market Update This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies. Earlier in the Asian session, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi stated that there are few signs of a possible stabilization in the Euro region and the economic situation still “remains challenging”. The Euro rose higher, underpinned by improved risk appetite after data released this morning revealed that manufacturing PMI data across the Europe posted better-than-expected figures in May. The Pound gained traction this morning, after UK’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in 14 months in May, boosting optimism that nation's recovery is becoming more broad based and less reliant on the services sector. The Yen recovered from its previous session losses this morning, after the IMF warned on Friday that, the Japanese currency has fallen enough to a level “moderately below” its natural trading value. The Australian is trading higher despite data indicated that retail sales in the nation rose less-than-expected in April. Also, official data from China, Australia’s major trading partner showed that, factory activity shrank for the first time in seven months in May and growth in services activity slowed down in the same month. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monthly board meeting tomorrow would be of much interest to the investors, with most of the market participants expecting the rate to remain on hold at its record low of 2.75%. EUR USD This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3030 against the USD, 0.38% higher from the New York close. In the Euro-zone, manufacturing PMI data from Germany and France rose slightly more-than-expected in May, while Italian manufacturing activity rose to a four-month high in the same month. Additionally, European manufacturing activity eased in May. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3044 and a low of 1.2987. On Friday, EUR traded 0.07% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.2981. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2967 and first resistance at 1.3068. GBP USD At 09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5270 against the USD, 0.57% higher from the New York close, after manufacturing PMI in the UK rose to a reading of 51.3 in May, from a revised reading of 50.2 recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the index to remain unchanged. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5289 and a low of 1.5196. On Friday, GBP traded 0.23% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5183. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5177 and first resistance at 1.5326. USD JPY The USD is trading at 100.36 against the JPY at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.31% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 100.77 and a low of 100.03. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.19% higher against the JPY, and closed at 100.67. The pair is expected to find its first support at 99.85 and first resistance at 101.04. USD CHF This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9564 against the Swiss Franc, 0.39% lower from the New York close. In Switzerland, the SVME PMI expanded in the month of May, recording a reading of 52.2, from a reading of 50.2 in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9580 and a low of 0.9541. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.53% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.9601. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9509 and first resistance at 0.9623. USD CAD At 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0368 against the CAD, marginally higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0376 and a low of 1.0343. On Friday, the USD traded 0.56% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0367. The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0318 and first resistance at 1.0400.  AUD USD The AUD is trading at 0.9643 against the USD, at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.74% higher from the New York close. Data released from Australia indicated that retail sales rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.2% (MoM) in April, compared to a 0.4% drop recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9653 and a low of 0.9598. AUD traded 0.25% lower against the USD in the New York session on Friday, and closed at 0.9572. The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9576 and first resistance at 0.9681. Gold At 09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1396.35 per ounce, 0.61% higher from the New York close, amid weakness in the US Dollar. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1401.95 and a low of $1391.38 per ounce. In the New York session on Friday, the yellow metal traded 1.37% lower, and closed at $1387.92. Gold has its first support at $1382.76 and first resistance at $1412.25. Silver Silver is trading at $22.46 per ounce, 0.89% higher from the New York close, at 09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.55 and a low of $22.33 per ounce. Silver traded 0.14% lower against the USD in the New York session on Friday, and closed at $22.26. Silver has its first support at $22.21 and first resistance at $22.67. Crude Oil At 09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $92.01 per barrel, 0.40% higher from the New York close, as weak Chinese manufacturing data dampened demand prospects for the oil. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $92.09 and a low of $91.37. On Friday, Oil traded 0.95% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $91.63. It has its first support at $91.08 and first resistance at $93.12. Economic Snapshot UK’s manufacturing PMI rose in May In the UK, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) advanced to a reading of 51.3 in May, from a revised reading of 50.2. Euro-zone’s manufacturing PMI advanced in May In the Euro-zone, the final manufacturing PMI climbed to a reading of 48.3 in May, higher than the flash reading of 47.8 and following a reading of 46.7 in April. Germany's manufacturing sector activity improved in May On a seasonally adjusted basis, the manufacturing PMI in Germany edged up to a reading of 49.4 in May, from a reading of 48.1 registered in April. Market had expected a reading of 49.0. French manufacturing PMI records a rise in May In France, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing PMI rose to a reading of 46.4 in May, higher than the expected reading of 45.5 and from a reading of 44.4 in April. Switzerland's manufacturing PMI rose in May The Swiss Association of Purchasing and Materials Management reported that its SVME manufacturing PMI in Switzerland rose to a reading of 52.2 in May, much higher than the expected reading of 50.8 in May and from a reading of 50.2 recorded in April. Italy’s manufacturing PMI increased more-than-expected in May In Italy, manufacturing PMI rose more than the expected to a reading of 47.3 in May, compared to a reading of 45.5 registered in the previous month. Spain’s manufacturing PMI rose in May Spain’s manufacturing PMI advanced to reading of 48.1 in May, above market consensus for a reading of 45.5 and compared to a reading of 44.7 recorded in April. Australia TD securities inflation eased in May On a monthly basis, TD securities inflation in Australia slipped to 0.2% in May, from 0.3% reported in April. Annually, TD securities inflation increased to 2.2% in May, from 2.1% in April. Australia retail sales rose in April On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales in Australia increased 0.2% in April, lower than the expected 0.3% rise and compared to 0.4% fall recorded in the previous month. China's non-manufacturing PMI slipped in May In China, the non-manufacturing PMI declined to a reading of 54.3 in May, from a reading of 54.5 registered in the previous month. China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI fell in May According to the survey data from Markit/HSBC, manufacturing PMI in China fell to a reading of 49.2 in May, from a reading of 50.4 registered in the previous month.

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

USD Leads May Despite Last 3 Days

by Adam Button

Jun 3, 2013 0:21

A strong official PMI from China contrasted a weak reading on the sector from HSBC. Despite a three day slump to end the month, the US dollar was easily the best performer in May while the Australian dollar lagged badly. Weekly CFTC positioning data show growing AUD and CHF shorts. We reintroduced USDCHF after a long absence from the Premium Insights with 2 new trades and monthly and weekly charts. 1 EURUSD remain in progress as well as 3 USDJPY, 2 EURJPY, 2 USDCAD and 1 silver. For full detail, see latest Premium Insights.

The official manufacutring sentiment survey from China rose to 50.8 compared to 50.0 expected and 50.6 in April. The number could give the Australian dollar some respite to start the week but traders may be skeptical. The PMI earlier in the week from HSBC slipped to 49.6 from 50.4 in April.

There is also uncertainty about the US manufacturing. Signs were pointing to a worsening slump until Fridaywhen the Chicago PMI soared to 58.7 compared to 50.0 expected. In the span of a month, the index when from the lowest since 2009 to the highest since early 2012.

We caution that it's only one month and one data point but renewed strength from US factories would be another reason to buy the US dollar. The other data point on Friday was the PCE report, which showed core inflation up 1.1% compared to 1.0% y/y expected. Rising inflation could give the Fed an incentive to taper QE, which could be a major boost for the US dollar. One negative part of the report was personal spending, which fell 0.2% in April.   Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR -85K vs -81K prior JPY -100K vs -95K prior GBP -75K vs -77K prior AUD -42K vs -32K prior CAD -33K vs -34K prior NZD +14K vs +18K prior CHF -29K vs -20K prior US Dollar Index longs at 46K vs 43K prior

The market has quietly built up the largest short position in CHF in 11 months. There are always rumors about hiking the EUR/CHF floor but it's mostly a trade on dollar strength and improving fundamentals in Europe.

Meanwhile, euro shorts are showing no sign of quitting even though more than half of the short position was initiate in the past two weeks – all of which are underwater. It's also interesting to note the lack of movement in NZD despite the rush in Australian dollar shorts. The carry is better in New Zealand but it's difficult to imagine the divergence continuing.

 

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

FXCC : MARKET UPDATE 30.05.2013

2013-05-30 04:30 GMT OECD: Global economy is moving forward at multiple speeds In its biannual Economic Outlook report, published on Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reduced the global growth outlook to 3.1% from the previous estimate of 3.4%. It expects the US and the Japanese economies to improve this year, suggesting at the same time that the Eurozone will continue to lag which might have “negative implications for the global economy." The OECD cut the Eurozone growth forecast to -0.6% from -0.1% estimated in November 2012, warning that "activity is still falling, reflecting ongoing fiscal consolidation, weak confidence and tight credit conditions, especially in the periphery." The Eurozone economy should rebound to 1.1% in 2014. The OECD also urged the ECB to seriously consider implementing QE and introducing negative deposit rates in order to stimulate recovery in the area. China, which already saw its growth outlook reduced on Tuesday by the IMF, is expected to grow by 7.8% this year, down from a previous estimate of 8.5%. The organization was more upbeat about the US, which is projected to grow by 1.9% in 2013 and by 2.8% in 2014. Japan's growth forecast was hiked to 1.6% from 0.7%, with the prospect of a 1.4% gain next year, owing to the BoJ's implementation of fiscal and monetary stimulus programs.-FXstreet.com   2013-05-30 06:00 GMT UK. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) (May) 2013-05-30 12:30 GMT USA. Gross Domestic Product Price Index 2013-05-30 14:30 GMT USA. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Apr) 2013-05-30 23:30 GMT Japan. National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) http://bit.ly/FXCC_Deryworldscorphttp://bit.ly/FXCC_Deryworldscorp   2013-05-30 04:39 GMT USD eases to key level at 83.50 ahead of US GDP 2013-05-30 03:11 GMT GBP/USD – Bullish engulfing candle to spur further advances? 2013-05-30 02:29 GMT EUR/USD edging towards resistance at 1.3000 2013-05-30 01:50 GMT Aussie edging higher towards resistance at 0.9700

AUDUSD 0.96915 / 920 NZDUSD 0.81185 / 197 USDCHF 0.95677 / 683 USDCAD 1.03311 / 318 GBPJPY 152.780 / 796 EURCHF 1.24228 / 233 GOLD 1404.99 / .05 SILVER 22.59 / .63

EURUSD HIGH1.2975 LOW1.29332 BID1.29729 ASK1.29729 CHANGE0.26% TIME08:23:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up TREND CONDITION Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Recent upside penetration is limited now to the key resistive barrier at 1.2977 (R1). Appreciation above this mark might likely push the pair toward to next targets at 1.2991 (R2) and 1.3006 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible bull back on the hourly chart might face next hurdle at 1.2933 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next retracement target at 1.2919 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.2902 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.2977, 1.2991, 1.3006 Support Levels: 1.2933, 1.2919, 1.2902

GBPUSD HIGH1.51713 LOW1.51136 BID1.51673 ASK1.51681 CHANGE0.26% TIME08:23:34

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up TREND CONDITION Upward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

Upwards scenario: A bullish oriented market participant might pressures to test our next resistance level at 1.5165 (R1). Loss here could open a route towards to our interim target at 1.5188 (R2) and the main aim for today locates at 1.5211 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be negative. Though, extension lower the 1.5099 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next supports at 1.5076 (S2) and 1.5053 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.5165, 1.5188, 1.5211 Support Levels: 1.5099, 1.5076, 1.5053

USDJPY HIGH101.538 LOW100.592 BID100.803 ASK100.807 CHANGE-0.34% TIME08:23:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down TREND CONDITION Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY recently tested negative side and currently remains stable below the 20 SMA. Possible price appreciation is limited to the resistance level at 101.53 (R1). Only clear break here would suggest next intraday targets at 101.81 (R2) and 102.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any prolonged movement below the support at 100.60 (S1) might prolong downside pressure and drive market price towards to supportive means at 100.34 (S2) and 100.08 (S3). Resistance Levels: 101.53, 101.81, 102.09 Support Levels: 100.60, 100.34, 100.08

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia