USD Leads May Despite Last 3 Days

by Adam Button

Jun 3, 2013 0:21

A strong official PMI from China contrasted a weak reading on the sector from HSBC. Despite a three day slump to end the month, the US dollar was easily the best performer in May while the Australian dollar lagged badly. Weekly CFTC positioning data show growing AUD and CHF shorts. We reintroduced USDCHF after a long absence from the Premium Insights with 2 new trades and monthly and weekly charts. 1 EURUSD remain in progress as well as 3 USDJPY, 2 EURJPY, 2 USDCAD and 1 silver. For full detail, see latest Premium Insights.

The official manufacutring sentiment survey from China rose to 50.8 compared to 50.0 expected and 50.6 in April. The number could give the Australian dollar some respite to start the week but traders may be skeptical. The PMI earlier in the week from HSBC slipped to 49.6 from 50.4 in April.

There is also uncertainty about the US manufacturing. Signs were pointing to a worsening slump until Fridaywhen the Chicago PMI soared to 58.7 compared to 50.0 expected. In the span of a month, the index when from the lowest since 2009 to the highest since early 2012.

We caution that it's only one month and one data point but renewed strength from US factories would be another reason to buy the US dollar. The other data point on Friday was the PCE report, which showed core inflation up 1.1% compared to 1.0% y/y expected. Rising inflation could give the Fed an incentive to taper QE, which could be a major boost for the US dollar. One negative part of the report was personal spending, which fell 0.2% in April.   Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR -85K vs -81K prior JPY -100K vs -95K prior GBP -75K vs -77K prior AUD -42K vs -32K prior CAD -33K vs -34K prior NZD +14K vs +18K prior CHF -29K vs -20K prior US Dollar Index longs at 46K vs 43K prior

The market has quietly built up the largest short position in CHF in 11 months. There are always rumors about hiking the EUR/CHF floor but it's mostly a trade on dollar strength and improving fundamentals in Europe.

Meanwhile, euro shorts are showing no sign of quitting even though more than half of the short position was initiate in the past two weeks – all of which are underwater. It's also interesting to note the lack of movement in NZD despite the rush in Australian dollar shorts. The carry is better in New Zealand but it's difficult to imagine the divergence continuing.

 

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XEMARKETS EURJPY ON JAPAN CPI FRIDAY 31.05.2013

What a difference a day makes as today's USD tumble was attributed to a modest miss in Q1 GDP revision (2.4% vs exp 2.5%), while the important PCE rose to a higher than expected 3.4%. USDX failed to reach the 85 resistance, but support looks to remain intact around 80.70. AUDUSD rebounded on higher than expected Capex spending plans but failed to reach our 0.9700 short. EUR and CHF were among the day's best performers. Tonight's April CPI figures (00:30 London) from Japan are expected to show improved data all around, which may justify the weak-yen policy and support yen crosses. With EUR outperforming most major FX lately, EURJPY will be particulat to watch as Japan's inflation data is released amid 13-month highs in JGB yields.  CAD awaits tomorrow's March GDP figures, which will help determined the fate of our latest USDCAD longs.

by Ashraf Laidi

May 30, 2013 20:38

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Liquid Markets : Technical Analysis 14.05.2013

EURJPY 132.02 / 04

• 133.55
• 133.15
• 132.75
• 132.38

• 131.53
• 131.05
• 130.40
• 129.70

       

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

EUR/JPY: The pair is moving in a tight range between the psychological levels of 131.53 (S1) and 132.38 (R1) as seen on the above chart. The pair retested the 132.38 level a couple of times since the beginning of this week without managing to break above it, making that level technically strong over the short and medium term. A hold for a clearer technical outlook is advisable.

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Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

City Credit Capital : Pulse of the Market

Pulse of the Market 

• The U.S Dollar flat despite U.S pending home sales rose in March
• Euro looks to German CPI data to set stage for ECB rate decision
• British Pound slides as the unwind in stimulus expectations slow
• Japanese Yen ignores lowest jobless rate since 2008, strong household spending

The U.S Dollar traded lower against major currencies yesterday amid 

speculation the Federal Reserve will decide at a monetary policy this 

week to keep stimulus programs in place, which weaken the U.S 

Dollar to encourage revival. The U.S gross domestic product rose 

2.5% in the first quarter, missing expectations for a 3.0% increase 

though an improvement from a 0.4% rise in the previous quarter.

The news weakened the Greenback by fueling sentiments that the 

Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus programs will stay in place for 

longer than expected. Stimulus tools such as the Fed's monthly $85 

billion bond buying program weaken the U.S Dollar to spur recovery. 

The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates and 

monetary policy on Thursday. The U.S data released earlier revealed 

that U.S consumer spending rose 0.2% in March, above expectations 

for a 0.1% increase, which gave the U.S Dollar some support. The 

National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index 

rose by 1.5% in March, beating expectations for a 1% gain. The 

Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the U.S Dollar versus a 

basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.42% at 82.22.

Euro-Yen
EUR/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days
moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone
and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative
Strength Index is above 55 and lies below the neutral
zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.17%

Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

PaxForex : EURJPY Rising Wedge

EURJPY Rising Wedge

The EURJPY has traded higher from its lows and formed a rising wedge formation. MACD formed a negative divergence and showed momentum fading while RSI has reached extreme overbought territory and formed a negative divergence as well. Will the bears force a correction down to its rising 50 DMA or can the bulls continue their stampede? Check out PaxForex Trading Recommendationstoday and find out before the move unfolds.

Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id

AJAX Financial : Awaiting Bernanke

JPY weakens further; Eurozone industrial production disappointed; EURCHF rose. The only item for the US session is chairman Bernanke's speech. 2 The latest on those Jan 7-8 trades: 8 trades hit all targets, 3 were unfilled, 4 remain in progress & 2 stopped out. All 2 EURUSD longs hit all targets , 2 USDJPY hit all targets, 2 GBPUSD hit all targets, 1 EURGBP hit all targets, both Gold in progress, one of which missing the final 1679 target by 1 point. Both Silver longs in progress, 1 of 2 AUDUSD hit all targets, the other missing the highest entry of 1.0450 by 2 pips. Both CADJPY unfilled, 1 of which missed highest entry of 87.90 by 8 pips, Both EURJPY stopped out.

Despite the fact that Tokyo was closed for holidays, JPY continued to weaken. USDJPY rose to 89.62 as traders expect the PM Abe to choose a head for the central bank that shares his belief in easing efforts. The BOJ is expected to review the inflation target and possibly raise it from 1% to 2%. USDJPY fell slightly and trades around 89.30.

EURUSD initially rose to a new 11 month high at 1.3403 but now trades around 1.3360 after Eurozone industrial production fell 0.3% in November while analysts expected 0.2% rise. On a positive note, October's result was revised higher to -1.0% from -1.4%.

Other data showed that Italian industrial production fell 1.0% in November, marginally less than prior decline 1.1% and German WPI was flat in December after declining 0.7% in November.

EURCHF showed an unusual volatility and rose to 1.2276 which is a level last seen in December 2011. The key resistance is 1.2472 which is a high from October 2011 that was reached in reaction to the SNB announcement of the 1.20 floor.

According to MNI calculations, EZ sovereign t-bill issuance this week is seen around  EUR 15 bln, lower than last week's EUR 30.5 bln. Bond issuance is estimated at EUR 18.7 bln vs. 26.6 bln last week.

There are no US reports due today. Market volatility could heighten at 10:30 am ET when the BOC releases its business outlook survey and also by the end of the session at 4:00 pm when the FED chairman Bernanke speaks on monetary policy.

Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id

EUR/JPY Jul 24-2012

Trade Idea EUR/JPY Downside Prevail

Pivot: 95.2

Our preference: Short positions below 95.2 with targets @ 93.5 & 93 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 95.2 look for further upside with 96.1 & 96.85 as targets.

Comment: technically, the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id

EUR JPY

EUR JPY Friday, Sept. 04, 2009 at 04.48 GMT+7


Today Price Open at 132.00

End of this week will be an interesting thing to travel EUR JPY, where the level below 130.65 - 129.80 will be a reference and as possible before that happens on this Friday we predict the movement to a level at 133.42 as the highest close for the day and week.

Indonesia

Ujung minggu ini akan menjadi hal yang menarik bagi perjalanan EUR JPY, dimana Level bawah 130.65 - 129.80 akan menjadi acuan dan sementara kemungkinan sebelum itu terjadi pada jum'at ini kami memprediksikan pergerakan ke level atas pada 133.42 sebagai penutupan tertinggi untuk hari dan minggu ini.

Happy Trading & Have a Nice Weekend

EUR JPY

EUR JPY Thursday Sept. 03, 2009 at 04.34 GMT+7



Today Price open at 131.52

Today our prediction EUR JPY price movement will penetrate the lower level between 130.65 - 129.89 while to level up the possibility of moving the price at 132.30 - 133.00. Projection on Thursdays EUR JPY is still going to continue with the weekly candle formation pressure 130 65 and for the monthly period is still the same possibilities as before to bolinger bands at 129.50 -125.60 leve. We use stochastic measures and Ichimoku 14-3-3 as support and resistance levels.

Indonesia

Hari ini prediksi kami pergerakan harga EUR JPY akan menembus level bawah antara 130.65 - 129.89 sementara untuk level atas kemungkinan harga bergerak di 132.30 - 133.00. Proyeksi pada kamis ini EUR JPY masih akan melanjutkan pembentukan candle weekly dengan tekanan
130.65 dan untuk masa bulanan kemungkinan masih sama seperti sebelumnya menuju bolinger bands pada leve 129.50 -125.60. Kami memakai ukuran stochastic 14-3-3 dan Ichimoku sebagai support dan resistance level.

Happy Trading

EUR JPY

Today Wednesday September, 02 2009




EUR JPY Price Open at 132.14

today price movements EUR JPY will start with a move upwards toward 132,75-133,30. After that limit price range today will probably be in the range of 133.00 as the upper and lower level 130,65-130,00 Where Reached After yesterday's fall USD JPY 131.86. While the reference to triger this week is the lowest range of 129.00 or 130.06 of candles weekly and monthly movements. We use resistance and support levels of 14-3-3 Ichimoku and stochastic.


(Indonesia )
hari ini kemungkinan pergerakan harga untuk EUR JPY akan dimulai dengan bergerak keatas menuju 132.75 - 133.30 . Setelah itu batasan kisaran harga untu hari ini mungkin harga akan berada pada kisaran 133.00 sebagai top level dan 130.65 - 130.00 untuk level bawah . Dimana Setelah kemarin EUR JPY turun mencapai 131.86. Sementara triger yang menjadi acuan untuk minggu ini adalah kisaran terendah 130.06 atau 129.00 dari pergerakan candle mingguan dan bulanan. Kami memakai support dan resistance level dari Ichimoku dan stochastic 14-3-3