Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading higher against most of the major currencies, after the Federal Reserve official, Charles Plosser expressed concerns over the long term impact of the quantitative easing, urging the central bank to exit its policy soon.
Ahead today investors await a raft of economic data that could offer further evidence on whether an economic recovery remains under way in the US.
Yesterday’s weak Euro-zone GDP data continued to weigh on the Euro, as speculation increased that the European Central Bank (ECB) would opt for negative rates very soon. The expectations are further reinforced after today’s data from France indicated that employment in the country continued to decline in Q12013. However, losses were capped after reports showed that trade surplus from Italy and Euro-zone widened in March.
On a ratings note, Fitch Ratings affirmed Slovakia’s sovereign rating at “A+”, with a “Stable” outlook, citing strongest economic growth achieved by the nation since the global financial crisis began in 2008-09.
As the aggressive monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) guided by Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe bear fruits, Japan recorded a spell bound increase in its GDP figures in the first quarter of 2013. Also, industrial production in the country increased in the month of March. Moreover, Fitch ratings affirmed Japan at “A+” rating with a “Negative” outlook.
The greenback traded lower in the New York session yesterday against the key currencies.
EUR USD
This morning at
09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.2875 against the USD, marginally lower from the New York close. In the Euro-zone, annual CPI rose 1.2%, in line with the preliminary estimate, while trade surplus rose to a seasonally adjusted €18.7 billion in March, from a revised €12.7 billion recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, France recorded a 0.1% drop in its quarterly nonfarm payrolls in Q12013, compared to a 0.3% drop in the previous quarter. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.2890 and a low of 1.2846. Yesterday, EUR traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.2880.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.2848 and first resistance at 1.2896.
GBP USD
At
09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5229 against the USD, marginally higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5249 and a low of 1.5197. Yesterday, GBP traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5226.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5178 and first resistance at 1.5275.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 102.62 against the JPY at
09:40 GMT this morning, 0.35% higher from the New York close. Earlier in the Asian session, economic data indicated that gross domestic product (GDP) in Japan increased 0.9% (QoQ) in the first quarter of 2013, following a revised 0.3% increase recorded in the previous quarter. Market had expected a rise of 0.7%. Additionally, industrial production in the country fell 6.7% (YoY) in March, better than the 10.5% drop recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.67 and a low of 101.97. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.19% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.26.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.06 and first resistance at 102.99.
USD CHF
This morning at
09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9669 against the Swiss Franc, 0.10% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9710 and a low of 0.9644. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.36% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9659.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9626 and first resistance at 0.9731.
USD CAD
At
09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0180 against the CAD, 0.16% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0194 and a low of 1.0150. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.30% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0164.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0146 and first resistance at 1.0217.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 0.9814 against the USD, at
09:40 GMT this morning, 0.81% lower from the New York close. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s foreign exchange transactions increased to A$382 million in April, from A$328 million recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9915 and a low of 0.9800. AUD traded marginally lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at 0.9894.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9769 and first resistance at 0.9890.
Gold
At
09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1374.81 per ounce, 1.48% lower from the New York close, amid strength in the US Dollar. The World Gold Council in a gold demand trends report for the period January-March 2013, stated that investors during the first quarter of 2013 didn’t buy enough physical gold to offset outflows from gold-exchanged traded funds. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1398.50 and a low of $1369.85 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 1.16% lower, and closed at $1395.50.
Gold has its first support at $1356.84 and first resistance at $1405.79.
Silver
Silver is trading at $22.28 per ounce, 1.48% lower from the New York close, at
09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $22.83 and a low of $22.14 per ounce. Silver traded 1.35% lower against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at $22.61.
Silver has its first support at $21.92 and first resistance at $22.86.
Crude Oil
At
09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $93.53 per barrel, 0.70% lower from the New York close, as concerns over global economic outlook weighed on demand prospects for crude oil. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $94.32 and a low of $93.23. Yesterday, Oil traded 1.32% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $94.21, after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its weekly report stated that crude oil stocks fell by 624,000 barrels in the week ending May10, while market had expected for a decline of 330,000 barrels.
It has its first support at $92.29 and first resistance at $94.60.
Economic Snapshot
Euro-zone trade surplus widened in March
In the Euro-zone, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, trade surplus widened to €22.9 billion in March, compared to a surplus of €10.1 billion in the previous month. Market had expected a trade surplus of €13.0 billion in March. On a seasonally adjusted basis, trade surplus widened to €18.7 billion in March, compared to a surplus of €12.7 billion posted in the previous month.
Euro-zone CPI rose in April
In the Euro-zone, consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% (YoY) in April, in line with the preliminary estimate. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.1% in April, compared to a 1.2% rise in the previous month.
French nonfarm payrolls declined in the Q12013
In France, nonfarm payrolls fell 0.1% (QoQ) in the Q12013, compared to a 0.3% decline in the Q42012.
Italian trade surplus widened in March
In Italy, global trade surplus widened to €3.237 billion in March, compared to a revised surplus of €1.092 billion reported in February. Additionally, trade surplus with the European Union countries widened to €0.607 billion in March, from a revised surplus of €0.386 billion in the previous month.
Japan industrial production rose in March
In Japan, industrial production rose 0.9% (MoM) in March, above the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% rise and compared to a 0.6% rise recorded in February. On an annual basis, industrial production fell 6.7% in March, compared to a 10.5% drop recorded in February.
Japan capacity utilization declined in March
In Japan, capacity utilization declined 0.8% (MoM) in March, compared to a 0.7% rise recorded in the previous month.
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