Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading lower against most of the major currencies, on increased risk appetite among investors after the US Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lew stated yesterday that the nation’s economy might grow 3% or more in the early next year, faster than the current pace of 2% to 2.5%.
The Euro rose in a quiet trade with not much economic data from the Euro-zone scheduled for today, while French markets were closed for a regional holiday. Data just released revealed that German industrial production unexpectedly climbed for a second month in March indicating that the nation is returning to growth.
The European Central Bank Executive board member, Joerg Asmussen stated that short-term risks faced by Cyprus remained high with deep recession expected to take a toll on the banks' balance sheets.
In Switzerland, annual consumer price inflation dropped in line with market expectations in the month of April, supporting the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) stance of imposing a cap on the Swiss Franc to avoid deflation.
The Bank of England (BoE) started its two day monetary policy meeting with market participants anticipating that the central bank would not lower the interest rates, after recent economic data indicated that the UK has avoided falling into a triple dip recession. On data front, retail sales in the UK unexpectedly dropped in April, while Halifax house prices came in better-than-expected in the same month.
Meanwhile, upbeat trade balance data from China pulled the Australian Dollar from its recent losses after an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
EUR USD
This morning at
09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3106 against the USD, 0.21% higher from the New York close, after strong Chinese trade data weighed on the safe haven US Dollar and helped the Euro. In economic news, German industrial production climbed 1.2% (MoM) in March, against expectations for a 0.1% decline. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3131 and a low of 1.3070. Yesterday, EUR traded 0.28% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3079.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3073 and first resistance at 1.3136.
GBP USD
At
09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5483 against the USD, marginally lower from the New York close. Late yesterday, the BRC retail sales in the UK dropped 2.2% in (YoY) in April, following a 1.9% increase recorded in the previous month. This morning, Halifax reported that house prices in the UK rose more-than-expected by 1.1% (MoM) in April, following a 0.2% increase recorded in the previous month. Market had expected a rise of 0.1%. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5493 and a low of 1.5470. Yesterday, GBP traded 0.35% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5484.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5439 and first resistance at 1.5534.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 98.90 against the JPY at
09:40 GMT this morning, 0.06% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 99.17 and a low of 98.64. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.25% lower against the JPY, and closed at 98.96.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 98.57 and first resistance at 99.30.
USD CHF
This morning at
09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9401 against the Swiss Franc, marginally lower from the New York close. On an annual basis, consumer price index (CPI) in Switzerland fell 0.6% in April, in line with market expectations and following the similar rate of drop recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9413 and a low of 0.9376. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.10% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.9404.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9374 and first resistance at 0.9429.
USD CAD
At
09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0057 against the CAD, 0.10% higher from the New York close. Housing starts data is the key economic indicator scheduled for release today in Canada. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0060 and a low of 1.0039. Yesterday, the USD traded marginally lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0047.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0036 and first resistance at 1.0076.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 1.0182 against the USD, at
09:40 GMT this morning, marginally lower from the New York close, after trade balance in China rose to a surplus of $18.2 billion in April, from a $0.9 billion deficit recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0206 and a low of 1.0155. AUD traded 0.21% higher against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at 1.0186.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0155 and first resistance at 1.0208.
Gold
At
09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1451.91 per ounce, marginally higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1458.85 and a low of $1447.74 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded marginally higher, and closed at $1451.53.
Gold has its first support at $1440.37 and first resistance at $1464.47.
Silver
Silver is trading at $23.80 per ounce, 0.27% lower from the New York close, at
09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $24.04 and a low of $23.78 per ounce. Silver traded 1.35% higher against the USD in the New York session yesterday, and closed at $23.86.
Silver has its first support at $23.49 and first resistance at $24.07.
Crude Oil
At
09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $95.36 per barrel, 0.10% lower from the New York close, after data from American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated that US crude stock piles increased by 680,000 barrels during the week ended May 3. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its 2013 forecast for crude-oil prices, citing increased production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Data from the EIA is scheduled to be released later in the day, wherein traders expect the crude oil supply to increase by 2 million barrels. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $95.98 and a low of $95.24. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.09% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $95.47.
It has its first support at $94.77 and first resistance at $96.11.
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Economic Snapshot
House prices in the UK rose in April, indicates Halifax
In the UK, Halifax house price index rose 1.1% (MoM) in April, more than market expectation of a 0.2% rise and compared to an upwardly revised rise of 0.4% reported in the previous month. On an annual basis, house price index rose 2.0% for three months to April, compared to a 1.1% rise for three months to March.
UK same store sales declined in April, indicates BRC
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that like-for-like retail sales in the UK declined 2.2% (YoY) in April, compared to a 1.9% rise posted in March.
German industrial production unexpectedly climbed in March
In Germany, industrial production rose 1.2% (MoM) in March, against the expectation of a 0.1% decline, and compared to a 0.6% rise in the previous month. On an annual basis, industrial production fell 2.5%, against the expectation of 3.8% drop, and compared to a 1.7% decline in the previous month.
Swiss consumer prices remained flat in April
On a monthly basis, consumer price index (CPI) in Switzerland remained flat in April, against the market expectation of a rise of 0.1% and compared to a rise of 0.2% in the previous month. On an annual basis, Switzerland’s CPI fell 0.6% in April, after posting a similar drop in March.
China swung to a trade surplus in April
The merchandise trade surplus in China stood at $18.2 billion in April, compared to a $0.9 billion deficit posted in the earlier month. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, both imports and exports rose 16.8% and 14.7%, respectively, in April.
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