Tuesday, May 14, 2013

TRADEFORT : US Retail Sales Strong


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Upbeat US retail sales numbers led to more speculation about Fed tapering Monday. The US dollar was the best performer while the Aussie lagged. The focus will remain on the Australian dollar today as the government delivers its latest budget. 
Economists hiked Q2 growth forecasts after US retail sales excluding autos and gas rose 0.6% compared to 0.3% expected. The March figure was also revised slightly higher to flat from -0.1%.
The US dollar jumped 40-50 pips immediately after the release on a number of crosses but it was unable to maintain the momentum. USD/JPY touched 102.05 but was unable to break the Asian high of 1.0215. A later rally struck out ahead of 102.00, suggesting that upside USD/JPY momentum could be fading in the immediate term.
The Australian dollar continued lower despite a neutral tone on risk appetite. AUD/USD fell to a 10-month low below 0.9950 as the breakout from the 9-month range continues.
The main focus of the upcoming session will be Australia as the government releases its budget at 0930 GMT. The government is expected to forecast slower economic growth and lower corporate tax receipts. Private sector economists are increasingly flagging softness in investment and the government could do the same. Expect the Gillard government to promise a surplus by 2016-17.
The Australian dollar will be vulnerable to a downtrodden tone or warnings about falling investment but it's far more likely that the government will emphasize economic strength and that could boost AUD back to parity.
The other economic event on the calendar is earlier at 2350 GMT when Japan releases the April corporate goods price index. The consensus is for a 0.2% y/y drop. Also keep an eye out for the 0345 GMT release of the 30-year JGB auction results.
Finally, those looking for clues on the strength of the global economy can eye the Indonesian interest rate decision at approximately 0630 GMT.


USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)

14 May 2013


USD/JPY (a 4-hour chart)
General overview
Last week, USD/JPY broke through the 100 level and managed to consolidate above it. With the opening of the market on Monday, the pair was being traded near the 101.90 level. Later, the pair reached a new high, the level 102.15 and then corrected to 101.70.
Now the pair is slowing, it is possible a lateral movement or a correction.
The price is above the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen line is going up, the cloud has a growing shape. The buy signal is strong and confirmed.
The upward movement will be in force until the price is above the Kijun-sen, if the price is fixed below the Kijun-Sen that will weaken or cancel the buy signal.
Bollinger Bands are directed upwards and widening indicating a continuation of the growth.
The MACD has stopped growing, the histogram has reached its maximum. The signal line can cross the histogram down in the near future, giving a sell signal.
Trading recommendations
The nearest resistance level is 102.20, then 103 goes. "Bulls" have to break through 101.80 and 101.55 to return to the previous level.
The pair is trading around the level 102 yen per dollar. The pair can be corrected and go back to 100.55. It is unlikely that the "bulls" retreat from the conquered positions, which they tried for so long to achieve.



Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Flag Counter Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.asia

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