| The Daily Forex Brief is written by FxPro's team in the City of London. Visit fxpro.co.uk for more news, FX commentaries, FxPro TV, real-time feeds, calculators and tools. |
| Daily Forex Brief |
| London :Monday 13th May 2013 |
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| Data/ Event Risks |
| EUR: Eurozone finance ministers meet later in the day, but there are no potentially market-moving events are on the agenda. Nevertheless, there always remains the risk of stray comments from finance ministers impacting the single currency. |
| USD: Retail sales are seen falling 0.3% in April, after a 0.4% fall in March. Firmer data should be dollar supportive, although the positive relationship between strong data and the dollar has been declining recently. |
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| Idea of the Day |
| The forex market has been breaking down barriers over the past few sessions following on from a period of reticence. The break above 100 on USDJPY has been given further impetus by the noises from the G7 meeting over the weekend in which they re-iterated their February commitment not to target exchange rates and made no noises of concern regarding the yen. At the same time, we’ve seen the Aussie break out of the broad 1.02-1.06 range that has held in place for the past 10 months now, pushing below parity at the end of last week. We’ve also seen AUDNZD reach levels not seen since late 2009. These moves are worth keeping a close eye on for this week, because a continuation could well see long-term players change their view, especially on the Aussie which has continued to defy calls for a weakening over many months. The question is whether we are looking at the sort of re-assessment seen on the yen over the past 6 months. Most likely not, but there could be some parallels. |
| Latest FX News |
| JPY: The move higher on USDJPY has continued, with 102.15 high marked out at the start of the week. The weekend G7 meeting did nothing to stand in the way or criticise the weaker yen, removing another hurdle to further yen weakness. |
| AUD: Still flirting with the parity level vs. the USD and trading slightly softer during the Asia session. Data on home loans was on the firm side, rising 5.2% MoM. NAB business confidence data came in to the soft side though. A sustained break through parity would likely see more liquidation of Aussie longs from bigger long-term players. |
| GBP: Holding its ground, with the latest forecasts from business group the CBI sounding more optimistic on the economy. Near term resistance is seen at 1.5412. |
| EUR: A steady Asia session with EURUSD holding below the 1.30 area. EURJPY reached a high of 132.40. |
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| Simon Smith | What do you think about the Daily Forex Brief? |
| Chief Economist | Email your views direct to the Insights team at insights@fxpro.com |
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| PRE US OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 13 MAY 2013 |
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| Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. |
| EUR/USD INTRADAY: KEY RESISTANCE AT 1.3015. |
Pivot: 1.3015
Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.3015 with targets @ 1.293 & 1.29 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3015 look for further upside with 1.306 & 1.311 as targets.
Comment: the pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance, the RSI stands around its neutrality area. |
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| GBP/USD INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. |
Pivot: 1.5415
Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.5415 with targets @ 1.533 & 1.53 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5415 look for further upside with 1.5455 & 1.549 as targets.
Comment: the pair is rebounding but stands below its resistance (former support). |
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| USD/JPY INTRADAY: FURTHER ADVANCE. |
Pivot: 100.95
Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 100.95 with targets @ 102 & 102.35 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 100.95 look for further downside with 100.4 & 99.65 as targets.
Comment: the pair remains on the upside and is approaching its previous high. |
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| AUD/USD INTRADAY: REBOUND EXPECTED. |
Pivot: 0.992
Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 0.992 with targets @ 1.004 & 1.0095 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.992 look for further downside with 0.9885 & 0.983 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line. |
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| GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. |
Pivot: 1449.00
Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1449 with 1419 & 1404 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1449 will open the way to 1462 & 1476.
Comment: as long as the resistance at 1449 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1419 remains high. |
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| CRUDE OIL (JUN 13) INTRADAY: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 94.8 |
Pivot: 94.80
Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 94.8 with targets @ 96.75 & 97.2.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 94.8 will call for a slide towards 93.35 & 92.9.
Comment: the RSI broke above a bearish trend line. |
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Disclaimer
The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities.
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