Wednesday, May 15, 2013

FXPRO : Daily Forex Brief | The new reality



PRE US OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 14 MAY 2013
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGOLDCRUDE OIL
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

EUR/USD INTRADAY: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 1.296.
Pivot: 1.296

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.296 with targets @ 1.306 & 1.311 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.296 look for further downside with 1.293 & 1.29 as targets.

Comment: the pair is rebounding as the RSI is reversing up.
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GBP/USD INTRADAY: KEY ST RESISTANCE AT 1.5385.
Pivot: 1.5385

Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.5385 with targets @ 1.527 & 1.5215 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.5385 look for further upside with 1.544 & 1.549 as targets.


Comment: the pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure, the RSI stands below its neutrality area.
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USD/JPY INTRADAY: THE BIAS REMAINS BULLISH.
Pivot: 100.95

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 100.95 with targets @ 102 & 102.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 100.95 look for further downside with 100.4 & 99.65 as targets.


Comment: the pair is facing a pull back ahead of further advance.
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AUD/USD INTRADAY: TOWARDS 0.983.
Pivot: 1

Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1 with targets @ 0.9885 & 0.983 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1 look for further upside with 1.004 & 1.0095 as targets.

Comment: the RSI has just broken below a rising trend line.
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GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS.
Pivot: 1449.00

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1449 with 1419 & 1404 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1449 will call for 1462 & 1476.


Comment: as long as 1449 is resistance, likely decline to 1419.
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CRUDE OIL (JUN 13) INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS.
Pivot: 95.75

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 95.75 with 94.5 & 93.35 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 95.75 will call for a rebound towards 96.25 & 96.75.

Comment: capped by a negative trend line.
The Daily Forex Brief is written by FxPro's team in the City of London. Visit fxpro.co.uk
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Daily Forex Brief
London :Tuesday 14th May 2013
If you are having problems viewing the chart, click here
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Data/ Event Risks
EUR: The ZEW data at 09:00 GMT the main data risk for the single currency. Focus will be on German data after the fall seen in last month’s release (sentiment back below 40 level), with market expecting a bounce back up to this level. Steady (last was 36.3) or lower would knock the euro. EU finance minister meet today, so just worth keeping an eye out for stray comments. Banking union is back on the agenda.
AUD: Australia budget presentation at 09:30 GMT (see below).
Idea of the Day
The Australian budget is presented later this morning and as we wrote about yesterday (“Crunch time for the Aussie?
”), the fiscal situation is one of the reasons that the shine has come off the Aussie recently. Central banks have doubled their reserve holdings of “other currencies” (in which the Aussie is included) in recent years, partly based on the relatively better fiscal backdrop that the Aussie offers compared with the dollar, euro and yen. The government were forecasting a budget surplus for the current year, but falling tax revenues (in part from the mining sector) have undermined that ambition. Compared to most of the Eurozone, things in Australia are still looking strong on the budget side. But today is about adjusting to a new reality, especially with as growth in China moderates and the balance shifts more towards services. The upside is looking that bit tougher for the Aussie from here.
Latest FX News
JPY: Some consolidation being seen after the push above the 100 level. EURJPY is also consolidating just below the 132 area.
AUD: Focus on the budget. Tighter budget is anticipated in the wake of lower taxes as the commodity boom tails off. Previously, Australia was forecasting a budget surplus for this year, something which is now looking out of sight. AUD still fighting with parity level vs. the USD.
GBP: Stops were triggered into the European close yesterday, pushing cable through the 1.53 level, back to levels last seen in the wake of the stronger than expected GDP nearly 3 weeks ago. Modest recovery seen overnight. Inflation report from Bank of England released tomorrow.
EUR: An underlying resilience still evident on the single currency, with the weakness seen in the wake of the stronger US retail sales data soon being clawed back. The firmer tone has also been evident during the Asia session, although once again EUR is fighting the 1.30 level.



The Daily Forex Brief is brought to you by:
Simon Smith
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