FXCC : Daily Market Update 02 May 2013

2013-05-02 07:00 GMT Will the ECB Kill the EUR Rally? The euro has performed extremely well leading up to Thursday's European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. In fact, it may be hard for some investors to believe that the majority of economists are looking for the ECB to cut interest rates by 25bp. Traditionally, expectations for easier monetary policy is negative for a currency but in the case of the euro, since the central bank started dropping hints about the potential for lower rates and economic data confirmed the need for more stimulus, the euro appreciated in value, rising to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in 2 months today. The European Central Bank has done a great job of setting expectations for this month's monetary policy meeting. They are known for preparing the market for any upcoming changes in policy with the hopes of minimizing volatility when the actual change is made. Since the last meeting, we have heard consistently cautious comments from policymakers who all sound as if they are warming to idea of more stimulus if data warrants it and it certainly does given the widespread weakness in German business, consumer and investor confidence along with the decline in manufacturing and service activity. - FXstreet.com 2013-05-02 11:45 GMT EU.ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr 2) 2013-05-02 12:30 GMT USA.Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26) 2013-05-02 12:30 GMT USA.Trade Balance (Mar) 2013-05-02 23:30 GMT AUS.AiG Performance of Services Index (Apr) http://bit.ly/FXCC_Deryworldscorphttp://bit.ly/FXCC_Deryworldscorp 2013-05-02 03:00 GMT GBP/USD - Another day of gains, but unable to take out 1.5600 resistance 2013-05-02 02:23 GMT AUD/USD continues to lose ground in Asia session 2013-05-02 00:43 GMT EUR/USD forms a false break at 1.32 2013-05-02 00:08 GMT USD/JPY slips to session lows post-BoJ minutes

AUDUSD 1.02347 / 356 NZDUSD 0.84889 / 897 USDCHF 0.92823 / 833 USDCAD 1.00843 / 852 GBPJPY 151.057 / 068 EURCHF 1.22234 / 244 GOLD 1453.60 / .95 SILVER 23.46 / .50

EURUSD HIGH1.31898 LOW1.31662 BID1.31709 ASK1.31713 CHANGE-0.07% TIME08:12:16

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down TREND CONDITION Up trend TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3185 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3213 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3239 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.3156 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards the interim target at 1.3120 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.3084 (S3). Resistance Levels: 1.3185, 1.3213, 1.3239 Support Levels: 1.3156, 1.3120, 1.3084

GBPUSD HIGH1.55724 LOW1.55409 BID1.55475 ASK1.55483 CHANGE-0.05% TIME08:12:17

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down TREND CONDITION Downward penetration TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5573 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.5598 (R2) and 1.5629 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 1.5527 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 1.5507 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 1.5481 (S3) mark. Resistance Levels: 1.5573, 1.5598, 1.5629 Support Levels: 1.5527, 1.5507, 1.5481

USDJPY HIGH97.422 LOW97.088 BID97.191 ASK97.195 CHANGE-0.21% TIME08:12:18

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down TREND CONDITION Sideway TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

Upwards scenario: Pair has settled sideways formation on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the resistance level at 97.42 (R1) mark. Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 97.61 (R2) and 97.82 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our next support level aligns at 97.11 (S1) and possible price regress below it might encounter downside rally. In such scenario we would suggest next intraday targets to be placed at 96.89 (S2) and 96.70 (S3). Resistance Levels: 97.42, 97.61, 97.82 Support Levels: 97.11, 96.89, 96.70

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