Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading higher against most of the major currencies, as risk aversion increased among investors following weak Chinese economic data.
The EURUSD is trading lower this morning, following news over the weekend that anti-euro political party, known as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is gaining strength. AfD party lead candidate, Bernd Lucke, criticized Angela Merkel's flawed rescue measures to save the Euro and called to dissolve the single currency or at least demand Germany's exit and return to the Deutschmark.
In a key development, Greece cleared a key obstacle in its way to receive its next batch of bailout loans after international debt inspectors stated today that they had reached an agreement over the country's economic reforms, paving the way for the disbursement of €8.8 billion ($11.5 billion).
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) upgraded its assessment of all nine regional economies from three months ago, citing pick up in global economy and improvement in exports and industrial production.
The Aussie declined against the US dollar, amid disappointing Chinese economic growth in the first quarter of 2013. Economic reports also showed that Chinese industrial production came in below market expectations, while retail sales rose slightly more-than-forecast.
Meanwhile, a separate report from World Bank showed that the agency has downgraded growth outlook for the Chinese economy to 8.3% in 2013 from its previous forecast of 8.4%.
The greenback traded mixed in the New York session on Friday, against the key currencies.
EUR USD
This morning at 09:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3063 against the USD, 0.13% lower from the New York close, amid reports that a new anti-euro political party in Germany is gaining strength. On the data front, merchandise trade surplus in the Euro-zone increased more than economists expected to €10.4 billion in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3108 and a low of 1.3052. On Friday, EUR traded 0.08% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3080.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3030 and first resistance at 1.3103.
GBP USD
At 09:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5310 against the USD, 0.22% lower from the New York close. In the UK, the Rightmove house prices increased for a fourth consecutive month in April, rising 2.1% (MoM) in April, compared to a 1.7% growth recorded in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.5386 and a low of 1.5308. On Friday, GBP traded 0.23% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.5344.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5283 and first resistance at 1.5361.
USD JPY
The USD is trading at 97.91 against the JPY at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.99% lower from the New York close. In Japan, industrial production increased for the third straight month in February, followed by a rise in capacity utilization. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 98.73 and a low of 97.55. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.15% lower against the JPY, and closed at 98.89.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 97.16 and first resistance at 99.05.
USD CHF
This morning at 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9301 against the Swiss Franc, marginally higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9314 and a low of 0.9277. In the New York session on Friday, the USD traded 0.12% lower against the CHF, and closed at 0.9298.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9272 and first resistance at 0.9330.
USD CAD
At 09:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.0211 against the CAD, 0.72% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0223 and a low of 1.0134. On Friday, the USD traded 0.20% higher against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0138, as soft US retail sales and consumer sentiment data, spurred investors to the safe-haven, greenback.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0138 and first resistance at 1.0254.
AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 1.0409 against the USD, at 09:40 GMT this morning, 0.88% lower from the New York close, amid dismal economic data from China, Australia's largest trading partner. Gross domestic product in China expanded 7.7% annually in the first quarter of 2013, slower than the 7.9% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2012. Industrial production in China rose 8.9% annually in March, compared to a 9.9% growth in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0526 and a low of 1.0408. AUD traded 0.29% lower against the USD in the New York session on Friday, and closed at 1.0501.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0365 and first resistance at 1.0497.
Gold
At 09:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1407.57 per ounce, 5.09% lower from the New York close, as the greenback strengthened, amid a disappointing Chinese GDP data and lingering concerns over the European debt crisis. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1495.75 and a low of $1398.85 per ounce. In the New York session on Friday, the yellow metal traded 3.57% lower, and closed at $1483.00.
Gold has its first support at $1354.26 and first resistance at $1505.46.
Silver
Silver is trading at $23.57 per ounce, 9.38% lower from the New York close, at 09:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $26.10 and a low of $23.45 per ounce. Silver traded 3.76% lower against the USD in the New York session on Friday, and closed at $26.01.
Silver has its first support at $22.20 and first resistance at $26.19.
Crude Oil
At 09:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $88.61 per barrel, 2.90% lower from the New York close, as demand concerns spurred, after economic data showed a slowdown in Chinese gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2013. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $90.67 and a low of $88.40. On Friday, Oil traded 0.65% lower in the New York session, and closed at $91.29.
It has its first support at $87.12 and first resistance at $91.37.
Economic Snapshot
Euro-zone trade surplus widened more-than-expected in February
The trade surplus in the Euro-zone increased to a seasonally adjusted €12.0 billion in February, from a revised €8.7 billion surplus in January. Market had expected trade surplus to rise to €9.9 billion.
Japan's industrial production rose unexpectedly in February
Industrial production in Japan grew 0.6% (MoM) in February, following a 0.3% increase in January and compared to a preliminary estimates of a drop of 0.1%. On a yearly basis, industrial production dropped 10.5% in February, compared to a 5.8% fall posted in the prior month. Meanwhile, capacity utilization rose 0.7% (MoM) in February, following a 1.7% increase in January.
Japanese machine tool orders dropped in March
The Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA) reported that, on an annual basis, machine tool orders in Japan dropped 15.7% in March, less than preliminary estimate of a 21.6% decline.
Australian home loans rose more-than-expected in February
Home loans in Australia rose 2.0% in February, compared to an upwardly revised 0.3% drop recorded in the previous month. Market had expected a rise of 1.5%. Meanwhile, investment lending rose 1.8% in February, following a 4.4% growth in January.
Chinese economy grew less-than-expected in 1Q 2013
On a quarterly basis, real gross domestic product (GDP) in China rose 1.6% in the first quarter of 2013 (1Q 2013), following a 2.0% growth in the previous quarter. Market had expected the GDP to rise 2.0%. On an annual basis, GDP gained 7.7% in the 1Q 2013, following a 7.9% rise in the prior quarter.
Chinese retail sales increased in March
Retail sales in China edged up 12.6% (YoY) in March, following a 12.3% growth recorded in the previous month.
China's industrial production rose at a slower pace in March
Industrial production in China rose 8.9% (YoY) in March, slower than the 9.9% growth recorded in February.
China's fixed asset investment rose less-than-expected in March
On a yearly basis, fixed asset investment excluding rural household in China rose 20.9% in January to March 2013, following a 21.2% increase in January to February 2013. Market had expected a rise of 21.3%.
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