Monday, January 28, 2013

XEMarkets GBPUSD OUTLOOK



GBP/USD was down slightly this week, as the pair closed just below the 1.58 line, at 1.5795. The pound has now shed 450 points against the US dollar since the beginning of the year. There are only four events scheduled in the upcoming week, with the highlight being Manufacturing PMI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
Both the UK and the US produced mixed numbers this week, resulting in modest losses for the pair. Both countries had strong employment numbers, but British GDP recorded a decline, while US housing numbers were well below expectations.
GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  GBP USD Forecast Jan 28-Feb 1
  1. Net Lending To Individuals: Wednesday, 9:30. Increased consumer debt indicates that financial institutions are comfortable lending to consumers, and that consumers are borrowing more. The indicator has looked weak of late, posting two consecutive declines. The markets are expecting an improvement in the upcoming reading, with a forecast of a gain of 0.9 billion pounds.
  2. GfK Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 00:01. Consumer Confidence continues to be in the deep-freeze, with little optimism about the UK economy. The previous releases worsened by -29 points, and little change is expected in the January release.
  3.  Nationwide HPI: Thursday, 7:00. This housing inflation index posted very weak readings for most of 2012, pointing to very subdued activity in the UK housing market. The markets are expecting an improvement in the January release, with an estimate of a 0.3% gain.
  4. Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 9:30.The trading week wrap up with the highlight of the week. Manufacturing PMI is a key release, and an unexpected reading could impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The index surprised the markets in December by crossing above the 50 point level, for the first time since May. The estimate for January stands at 51.o points, which would indicate very slight expansion in the manufacturing industry. 
*All times are GMT
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5855. The pair quickly reached a high of 1.5892, but then dropped all the way to 1.5746, briefly breaching support at 1.5750 (discussed last week). GBP recovered partially, and closed the week at 1.5795. 
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We begin with resistance at 1.6343, which was breached immediately after the fiscal cliff agreement on New Year’s Day, but has remained intact since that time. The pound has been on a steep slide since that time. Next, there is resistance at 1.6247. This is followed by 1.6122. The pair easily broke through resistance at 1.6060 and 1.5992 earlier this month, as the pound was no match for the greenback.
Next, 1.5930 could not hold on, as the pair pushed below the 1.59 line. Below, 1.5850 started off the week as a weak line, but was breached and has now reverted to a resistance role. The pound showed some improvement at the end of the week, so this line could see further activity if this upward trend can be sustained.
GBP/USD is receiving weak support at 1.5750. This line was breached on the pair’s downward push, but remained intact at week’s end. We encounter stronger support at 1.5648. Next is the line of 1.5516 has held steady since August of last year. This is followed by support at 1.5406, which has not been tested since July 2012. Below, there is support at 1.5361, which has held firm since June 2012. The pound started a rally at that time, which lasted until September. The final support level for now is at 1.5282.



Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Flag Counter Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id

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