Saturday, January 19, 2013

Direct FX : Economic Snapshot



Forex Market Update
This morning, the greenback is trading higher against most of the major currencies, as risk aversion spurred, amid lingering worries over the US debt ceiling. Market participants speculate that economic problems would erupt if lawmakers fail to increase the government's borrowing limit.
Meanwhile, commenting on the world economic growth, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief, Christine Lagarde warned yesterday, that more efforts were needed to get the global economy back on track.
Sentiment on the Pound remained fragile, amid economic worries in the UK as disappointing UK retail sales data released this morning, further cemented worries that the economy shrank in the final quarter of 2012.
Meanwhile, a keynote speech by the UK Prime Minister, David Cameron on whether the UK should exit the EU, was expected to provide further insights about the UK-EU relationship, has been now postponed due to the hostage crisis in Algeria.
Earlier in the session, the Japanese Yen came under pressure, as investors expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to take bold action to tackle deflation at its policy-setting meeting scheduled next week.
Meanwhile, economic data reports showed that China's economic growth accelerated for the first time in two years in the fourth quarter. Additionally, growth in industrial production also accelerated more-than-expected in December.
The greenback traded mixed in the New York session yesterday, against the key currencies.

EUR USD
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3337 against the USD, 0.28% lower from the New York close, after Italian industrial new orders fell unexpectedly in December. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3400 and a low of 1.3333. Yesterday, the EUR traded marginally higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3374, after Spain's borrowing costs dropped amid robust demand at its €4.5 billion bond auction, highlighting increased confidence in the European debt markets.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3313 and first resistance at 1.3380.

GBP USD
At 10:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.5929 against the USD, 0.42% lower from the New York close, after the release of a downbeat UK retail sales data. Retail sales in the UK fell 0.1% (MoM) in December, against market expectations for a rise of 0.2%. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6008 and a low of 1.5924. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.21% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.5996.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.5888 and first resistance at 1.6005.

USD JPY
The USD is trading at 89.78 against the JPY at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.05% lower from the New York close. On an annual basis, industrial production in Japan declined 5.5% in November, compared to a 4.5% drop in the previous month. Additionally, capacity utilization in Japan dropped 0.2% (MoM) in November, reversing a 1.6% rise in the previous month. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 90.23 and a low of 89.64. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.62% higher against the JPY, and closed at 89.83.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 89.26 and first resistance at 90.26.

USD CHF
This morning at 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9350 against the Swiss Franc, 0.26% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9391 and a low of 0.9322. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.15% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.9326.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9301 and first resistance at 0.9395.

USD CAD
At 10:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.9901 against the CAD, 0.44% higher from the New York close. The pair is expected to trade on the cues from the release of manufacturing shipments data in Canada later today. Analysts' expect manufacturing shipments to show growth in November, reversing the drop in October. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9905 and a low of 0.9851. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.09% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9858.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9860 and first resistance at 0.9924.

AUD USD
The AUD is trading at 1.0495 against the USD, at 10:40 GMT this morning, 0.48% lower from the New York close, despite a flurry of impressive economic data in China, Australia's largest trading partner. Gross domestic product in China rose 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012, compared to 7.4% rise in the previous quarter. Additionally, industrial production in China rose 10.3% (YoY) in December, while retail sales grew 15.2% annually in December, compared to 15.1% growth expected by markets. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.0561 and a low of 1.0490. AUD traded 0.12% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.0546.

The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0470 and first resistance at 1.0541.

Gold
At 10:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1689.79 per ounce, 0.14% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1693.45 and a low of $1685.90 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.28% higher, and closed at $1687.35.

Gold has its first support at $1672.37 and first resistance at $1701.75.

Silver
Silver is trading at $31.80 per ounce, 0.23% higher from the New York close, at 10:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $31.93 and a low of $31.67 per ounce. Silver traded 0.67% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $31.73.

Silver has its first support at $31.26 and first resistance at $32.14.

Crude Oil
At 10:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $95.32 per barrel, 0.20% higher from the New York close, after data showed that economic growth accelerated in China, the world's second-biggest crude consumer. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $95.67 and a low of $95.12. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.45% higher in the New York session, and closed at $95.17, on the back of upbeat US employment and housing data.

It has its first support at $94.48 and first resistance at $96.10.

UK retail sales unexpectedly declined in December
On a monthly basis, UK retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% in December, after staying flat in November. Market had expected a 0.2% rise in December. On an annual basis, overall retail sales in the UK rose 0.3% in December, against expectations for a 1.0% rise and slower than the 0.9% gain in November.

Industrial orders in Italy declined in November
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial orders in Italy dropped 0.5% in November, compared to an upwardly revised gain of 0.1% reported in the previous month. Additionally, the seasonally adjusted industrial sales declined 0.2% (MoM) in November.

Japan industrial output retreated in November
Industrial production in Japan fell a seasonally adjusted 1.4% (MoM) in November, slower than the 1.7% fall estimated earlier. Additionally, capacity utilization dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.2% (MoM) in November, compared to a 1.6% rise in the previous month.




Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Flag Counter Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id

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