Friday, December 7, 2012

TRADE NEXT : The London session was relatively quiet ahead of the US labor market data.



Earthquake in Japan; Bundesbank downgrades outlook; German industrial production falls; UK manufacturing and industrial production disappoint. Focus is on US and Canadian labor market data and UoM consumer sentiment. 2 EURUSD Trades were added to the Premium Insights ahead of NFP. See below for more detail. 

The London session was relatively quiet ahead of the US labor market data. The exception was JPY that rose sharply after news of a 7.3 magnitude earthquake in northeast Japan hit the wires. Tsunami warning was issued and later called off after the pacific coast was hit by waves over three feet high. USDJPY regained losses and trades only marginally weaker around 82.35. 

The common currency was under pressure at the beginning of the London session after German Bundesbank downgraded the outlook for 2013. GDP growth was downgraded dramatically to 0.4% from 1.6%, unemployment is seen rising to 7.2% from previous projection of 6.5% and inflation should slow to 1.5% from 1.6%. The pressure also increased after German industrial production fell 2.6% from previous -1.3%. This is the third back to back decline. EURUSD trades lower around 1.2930.

UK industrial production disappointed as it declined 0.8% in October while analysts expected a 0.8% growth. Manufacturing production fell 1.3% from a prior flat reading. Industrial production has been contracting over the past three months and the weak beginning of Q4 could prove to have a negative impact on Q4 GDP. GBPUSD is weaker around 1.6030.

November NFP at 8:30 am ET is projected to decline substantially to 85K from previous 171K and the unemployment is seen steady at 7.9%. The UoM consumer sentiment at 9:55 am is expected to decline in December to 82.4 from 82.7.

Canadian employment at 8:30 am is seen rising in November by 11.3K from previous 1.8K and the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 7.4%. The market



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