Wednesday, November 21, 2012

No decision from Eurogroup,

No decision from Eurogroup, next meeting on 11/26; MPC voted 9:0 on rates and 8:1 on QE; German auction. Market turns to jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI and UoM consumer confidence revision.Due to technicals issues we had been unable to post the latest Premium Insights. These will be out later this afternoon. Please see below the triple charts on USDJPY from last week's Premium making the case for the bullish side.

The common currency dropped nearly 90 points during the Asian session after yet another Eurogroup meeting ended with no agreement on Greek aid. EZ finance ministers will meet again on Monday 11/26. Even though the Eurogroup head J. C. Juncker attempted to calm the markets by saying that the meeting was only interrupted to allow more technical work, German finance minister Schaeuble said there was no agreement among the finance ministers. Nevertheless, EURUSD recovered from 1.2735 to 1.2800

The minutes from the latest MPC meeting revealed unanimous voting to keep rates on hold at 0.5% but a 8:1 split regarding QE. Only David Miles voted for GBP 25 bln in further easing. The MPC noted that it is unlikely to cut the Bank rate in the foreseeable future. Public sector net borrowing declined in October to GBP 6.5 bln from September's GBP 9.9 bln. GBPUSD trades around 1.5910 which is about 20 points below session high.

The JPY continues to decline on anticipation of more aggressive monetary easing. The reported barrier at 82.00 was broken and the pair currently trades around 82.25

Germany allotted EUR 3.253 bln of 10 year bund vs. EUR 4 bln target. The average yield declined to 1.4% vs. previous 1.56% and cover was unchanged at 1.5.

Because of the tomorrow's Thanksgiving holidays, jobless claims will be published today at 8:30 am ET. They are seen at 415K after soaring to 439K the week earlier. Markit manufacturing PMI comes at 9:00 am and it is anticipated to rise slightly in November to 51.2 from 51.0 and finally the university of Michigan consumer sentiment is due at 9:55 am and it is expected to be revised lower to 84.3 from the initial estimate 84.9.

Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us


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