| AUD/USD intraday: key ST resistance at 1.0235. |
Pivot: 1.0235
Our preference: Short positions below 1.0235 with targets @ 1.018 & 1.015 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.0235 look for further upside with 1.029 & 1.035 as targets. Comment: as long as 1.0235 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias. |
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In the near term, there is a risk that we see the AUD bounce back to the 1.03 area. Looking ahead, little of substance is expected from either the BoE or the ECB when their rate-setting committees meet later today. In the US, traders will be on alert for the latest claims figures in terms of what they reveal about the state of the US labour market, ahead of tomorrow’s all-important non-farm payrolls figures.
These days it is a relatively simple task to justify a short position in the Aussie. As one of the most high-profile high-beta currencies, it is invariably extremely sensitive to macro risk, of which there is plenty these days. The global economy is fragile, critical commodity prices such as iron ore and coking coal have been under sustained assault, the local economy is struggling and interest rates are heading lower.
Overnight, Aussie bears received some further fundamental reinforcement after weak retail sales and housing approvals data. In response, the AUD fell to 1.0182 but it failed to penetrate last month’s low of 1.0167. Those with Aussie shorts need to be a little careful here, if only because the currency is very oversold by short-term traders and a rate cut for next month is almost fully factored in.
Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id
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