WEEKLY OUTLOOK Sept 24-28-2012

The US dollar corrected some of its huge losses in the aftermath of QE3, cutting a losing streak of 4 weeks. Is it a temporary break, or a major change?. German Ifo Business Climate, CB Consumer Confidence US housing data and unemployment claims are the major market-movers on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the major events this week.

Last week US Existing Home Sales surprised traders with a leap to an annualized 4.82 million units from 4.47 million in July, confirming the growth trend in the housing sector. Meanwhile the number of weekly unemployment claims dropped to 382, a mere 3,000 drop from the week before indicating a slowdown in hiring and a struggling job market. In Europe, Spain enjoyed a successful bond auction. Will it finally ask for aid? Let’s Start

• Euro-Zone German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. German business climate dropped for the fourth consecutive month in August to 102.3 from a downwardly revised103.2 in July, amid increasing concerns over the EU debt crisis and its negative impact on exports and German economic growth. Economists expected a higher reading of 102.7. A rise to 102.9 is expected this time.
• US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. US Consumer Confidence declined August to 60.6 from a revised65.4 in July in light of worries about the weakening job market. The reading was well below predictions forecasting an increase to 65.8. An increase to 63.2 is predicted now.
• US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. Sales of new homes edged up 3.6% in July reaching 372,000 units, following another good reading of 359,000 units in the previous month. Analysts predicted an increase to 363,000 confirming the recovery trend in the housing market. A further rise to 381,000 is forecasted.
• US Core Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30.US Core Durable Goods, excluding transportation declined unexpectedly in July, dropping 0.4% while predicted to gain 0.5%. This reading followed a 2.2% plunge in the previous month. Meanwhile headline figure showed a 4.1% leap after a 1.6% increase in June driven by civilian aircraft spending. Disregarding the core figure, there is an improvement in US economic activity. A 0.5% gain is anticipated this time.
• US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits dropped less than predicted last week with 382,000 claims, down 3,000 from the preceding week. The labor market added only 96,000 jobs last month, below the 141,000 in July suggesting weak hiring. Analysts believe unemployment and sluggish growth will continue to deteriorate in the coming months. Another drop to 377,000 is expected now.
• US Pending Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. Pending home sales reached a two year high in July jumping 2.4% to 101.7, after a 1.1% decline in June. The reading was above predictions giving further evidence to the upward trend in the housing sector. Home prices also show a consistent rise aided by the boost in sales. The number of homes for sales decreased 24% in the past year. If the current pace of sales continues, the supply of houses will exhaust in 6.4 months. A decline of 0.4% is forecasted now.
• Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. Real gross domestic product increased by a modest 0.2% in Juneafter a 0.1% advance in May, rising above the 0.1% growth rate expected by analysts. The rise was driven by mining and oil and gas extraction. On an annual basis, GDP gained 2.4% in June. Another increase of 0.2% is predicted this time.

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