Monday, July 30, 2012

ECB, Latest CFTC Reports

Bloomberg reports that Draghi will meet with Weidman in the coming days and hopes to convince him to use new tools as the crisis in the eurozone reaches a new stage. The report suggests the ECB will buy bonds on the primary and secondary market. An LTRO operation beyond 3 years, an ESM banking licence and rate cuts are also up for discussion.
The euro began rallying Wednesday and continued higher through the end of the week, touching 1.2390 before receding to 1.2322. The ECB and BOE meet Aug 2, one day after the Fed ensuring the week ahead will be momentous.
ECB, Latest CFTC Reports 

Fridays US GDP report was in-line with the consensus estimate at +1.5% but Q1 growth was revised to 2.0% from 1.9%. The July final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading was revised to 72.3 from 72.0.
A weekend report from The Economist said a full bailout of Spain is looming. Reuters also reports that the ECB may write down its Greek debt holdings in a last ditch effort to restore confidence.

CFTC futures positioning data, which reflects the close on Tuesday, showed EUR shorts pared back but still highly exposed to a short squeeze. The market is quickly piling into AUD and JPY longs.

EUR net short 155K vs 167K last week
JPY net long 25K vs 11K prior (highest since Feb)
GBP net short 3K vs 7K prior
AUD net long 26K vs 14K prior (highest since May)
CAD net short 2K vs 1K prior

Disclaimer The analysis we provide is based on the average estimate of price movements in one day. Does not guarantee what we deliver is actually a proper and correct. Everything that happens in the decisions you make on your trading transaction is to be Your responsibilities. Visit Us www.deryworldscorp.web.id

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